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Fact Check predictions & odds

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Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30?

Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30?

26%

$93 Vol.

$837 Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

What will Trump post this week? (May 11 - May 17)

What will Trump post this week? (May 11 - May 17)

40%

Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire

$10.8K Vol.

$494 Liq.

What will Trump post this week? (May 24)

What will Trump post this week? (May 24)

85%

Big / Bigger / Biggest

$262 Vol.

$3.9K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

What will Trump say this week? (May 24)

What will Trump say this week? (May 24)

89%

China

$2.1K Vol.

$8.6K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

What will Trump say this week? (May 17)

What will Trump say this week? (May 17)

15%

Hantavirus

$87.5K Vol.

$2.0K Liq.

Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

3%

May 31

$145K Vol.

$19.2K Liq.

10

"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?

"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?

80%

Not revealed in 2026

$13.4K Vol.

$20.2K Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

48%

June 30

$18M Vol.

$338K today

$237K Liq.

473

Ends in about 1 month

What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?

What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?

3%

Nuclear

$12M Vol.

$2M today

$779K Liq.

1,971

PLL: 2026 Face-Off Player of the Year

PLL: 2026 Face-Off Player of the Year

51%

TD Ierlan

$1 Vol.

$17 Liq.

Ends in 4 months

What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing?

What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing?

89%

President 30+ times

$5.7K Vol.

$1.5K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

<1%

$1M Vol.

$497K today

$107K Liq.

16

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

-

$1 Vol.

$141 Liq.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

43%

200+

$16.8K Vol.

$4.5K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

What animals will Trump say in May?

What animals will Trump say in May?

85%

Turkey / Turkiye

$15.5K Vol.

$5.7K Liq.

21

Ends in 14 days

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

13%

December 31

$3M Vol.

$11.1K Liq.

57

What will Trump say in May?

What will Trump say in May?

65%

Golden Dome

$38.4K Vol.

$3.4K Liq.

8

Ends in 14 days

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

37%

160-179

$75.3K Vol.

$4.9K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

86%

Delcy Rodríguez

$18.4K Vol.

$523K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

US strike on Mexico by...?

US strike on Mexico by...?

19%

December 31

$3M Vol.

$19.0K Liq.

164

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Fact Check.

Polymarket currently hosts 191 active markets for Fact Check that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $37.8M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 48% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Fact Check predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.