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Elections·Texas Senate

Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?

Market icon
Elections·Texas Senate

Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?

Dems

>99% chance
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Dems

>99% chance
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve to “Dems” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary (total canvass votes in the primary) is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary. This market will resolve to “GOP” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. If the first-round total vote count in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the either relevant election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Official Texas Secretary of State data from the March 5, 2024, primaries confirms Democratic Senate primary turnout at 1,046,501 votes, surpassing Republican turnout of 1,037,053—the first time since 1994 Dems led statewide. This near-identical total voter participation across parties reflects depressed GOP enthusiasm amid Ted Cruz's lightly challenged incumbent race, contrasted with Colin Allred's competitive Democratic primary. Trader consensus at 100% for Dems stems from certified results, with negligible provisional or mail ballots left to count. Realistic shifts remain improbable absent legal challenges or recount demands, though none have materialized amid the slim 9,448-vote margin.

Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.

This market will resolve to “Dems” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary (total canvass votes in the primary) is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary.

This market will resolve to “GOP” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.

If the first-round total vote count in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the either relevant election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$0
End Date
Mar 3, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve to “Dems” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary (total canvass votes in the primary) is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary. This market will resolve to “GOP” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. If the first-round total vote count in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the either relevant election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Outcome proposed: Dems

No dispute

Final outcome: Dems

Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve to “Dems” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary (total canvass votes in the primary) is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary. This market will resolve to “GOP” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. If the first-round total vote count in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the either relevant election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Official Texas Secretary of State data from the March 5, 2024, primaries confirms Democratic Senate primary turnout at 1,046,501 votes, surpassing Republican turnout of 1,037,053—the first time since 1994 Dems led statewide. This near-identical total voter participation across parties reflects depressed GOP enthusiasm amid Ted Cruz's lightly challenged incumbent race, contrasted with Colin Allred's competitive Democratic primary. Trader consensus at 100% for Dems stems from certified results, with negligible provisional or mail ballots left to count. Realistic shifts remain improbable absent legal challenges or recount demands, though none have materialized amid the slim 9,448-vote margin.

Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.

This market will resolve to “Dems” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary (total canvass votes in the primary) is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary.

This market will resolve to “GOP” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.

If the first-round total vote count in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the either relevant election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$0
End Date
Mar 3, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve to “Dems” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary (total canvass votes in the primary) is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary. This market will resolve to “GOP” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. If the first-round total vote count in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the either relevant election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Outcome proposed: Dems

No dispute

Final outcome: Dems

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

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The current frontrunner for "Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?" is "Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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