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icon for Base iPhone 18 released by...?
Tech·KPIs

Base iPhone 18 released by...?

icon for Base iPhone 18 released by...?
Tech·KPIs

Base iPhone 18 released by...?

NEW
Feb 28, 2027
Polymarket

$557 Vol.

Polymarket

February 28, 2027

$345 Vol.

12%

March 31, 2027

$149 Vol.

76%

April 30, 2027

$63 Vol.

79%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple has shifted its iPhone 18 release cadence by launching only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Duo at its September 9, 2026 “Surprise and Shine” event, with pre-orders starting September 12 and availability from September 18. The base iPhone 18, along with an 18e variant, has been deferred to spring 2027—likely March—under a new split-launch approach driven by supply-chain constraints on advanced components like the 2nm A20 chip, higher component costs, and a focus on premium-margin devices. This marks a departure from prior years when base models shipped alongside Pro variants in September, leaving the iPhone 17 lineup extended into 2027. Traders monitoring the market should watch for any official confirmation or spring event signals, as the strategy reflects broader competitive pressures from foldables and AI-enhanced hardware.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$557
End Date
May 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple has shifted its iPhone 18 release cadence by launching only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Duo at its September 9, 2026 “Surprise and Shine” event, with pre-orders starting September 12 and availability from September 18. The base iPhone 18, along with an 18e variant, has been deferred to spring 2027—likely March—under a new split-launch approach driven by supply-chain constraints on advanced components like the 2nm A20 chip, higher component costs, and a focus on premium-margin devices. This marks a departure from prior years when base models shipped alongside Pro variants in September, leaving the iPhone 17 lineup extended into 2027. Traders monitoring the market should watch for any official confirmation or spring event signals, as the strategy reflects broader competitive pressures from foldables and AI-enhanced hardware.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$557
End Date
May 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Base iPhone 18 released by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30, 2027" at 80%, followed by "March 31, 2027" at 77%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Base iPhone 18 released by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Base iPhone 18 released by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Base iPhone 18 released by...?" is "April 30, 2027" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31, 2027" at 77%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Base iPhone 18 released by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.