Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability as the world No. 1 in latest FIFA rankings, bolstered by Nations League quarterfinal advancement via penalties over Netherlands (5-5 aggregate) earlier this month and consistent dominance since Euro 2024 triumph. France surged to No. 2 after Kylian Mbappé's goal secured a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26, signaling attacking firepower amid playoff resolutions. England, Argentina, and Brazil trail closely at 13-9%, reflecting squad depth, defending champion resilience despite Argentina's ranking slip, and South American pedigree in a 48-team expanded field. With groups drawn in December showing no brutal Paths of Death for elites, the race stays tight amid knockout volatility, home-soil edges for hosts, and Nations League form carrying into the June kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$427,345,173 Vol.
$427,345,173 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$427,345,173 Vol.
$427,345,173 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability as the world No. 1 in latest FIFA rankings, bolstered by Nations League quarterfinal advancement via penalties over Netherlands (5-5 aggregate) earlier this month and consistent dominance since Euro 2024 triumph. France surged to No. 2 after Kylian Mbappé's goal secured a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26, signaling attacking firepower amid playoff resolutions. England, Argentina, and Brazil trail closely at 13-9%, reflecting squad depth, defending champion resilience despite Argentina's ranking slip, and South American pedigree in a 48-team expanded field. With groups drawn in December showing no brutal Paths of Death for elites, the race stays tight amid knockout volatility, home-soil edges for hosts, and Nations League form carrying into the June kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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