Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no cut to long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, driven by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, which extended 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but retained existing 0%, 15%, and 20% brackets without reduction. Recent proposals for inflation indexing of capital gains, urged by Senators Cruz and Scott to Treasury for unilateral action, have stalled amid think tank warnings of nearly $1 trillion added to national debt over a decade. No bill has advanced through Congress, with the latest fiscal year 2027 budget prioritizing defense spending ahead of midterms, leaving limited time for passage via reconciliation or other means.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no cut to long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, driven by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, which extended 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but retained existing 0%, 15%, and 20% brackets without reduction. Recent proposals for inflation indexing of capital gains, urged by Senators Cruz and Scott to Treasury for unilateral action, have stalled amid think tank warnings of nearly $1 trillion added to national debt over a decade. No bill has advanced through Congress, with the latest fiscal year 2027 budget prioritizing defense spending ahead of midterms, leaving limited time for passage via reconciliation or other means.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volumen
$1,064Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no cut to long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, driven by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, which extended 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but retained existing 0%, 15%, and 20% brackets without reduction. Recent proposals for inflation indexing of capital gains, urged by Senators Cruz and Scott to Treasury for unilateral action, have stalled amid think tank warnings of nearly $1 trillion added to national debt over a decade. No bill has advanced through Congress, with the latest fiscal year 2027 budget prioritizing defense spending ahead of midterms, leaving limited time for passage via reconciliation or other means.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$1,064Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no cut to long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, driven by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, which extended 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but retained existing 0%, 15%, and 20% brackets without reduction. Recent proposals for inflation indexing of capital gains, urged by Senators Cruz and Scott to Treasury for unilateral action, have stalled amid think tank warnings of nearly $1 trillion added to national debt over a decade. No bill has advanced through Congress, with the latest fiscal year 2027 budget prioritizing defense spending ahead of midterms, leaving limited time for passage via reconciliation or other means.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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