Name: Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?
Start: 2023-10-12T19:39:54.308Z
End: 2023-11-30T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any listed major Iranian oil refinery is damaged to the point of inoperability for any length of time due to violent or military action by November 30, 2023 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The major Iranian oil refineries considered for this market are:

Abadan Refinery
Isfahan Refinery
Arak Refinery
Bandar Abbas Refinery 
Tehran Refinery

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and/or Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".


1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.


2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by JJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". 

¿Sobrevivirá el régimen iraní a ataques militares de EE. UU.?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against the municipality of Tehran or any target within the municipality, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.


¿Israel o Estados Unidos atacarán Teherán?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Iran strike on US military
- Iran Strike on Israel
- Iran strike on Qatar

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHIranStrike.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Khamenei leaves Iran

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Khamenei leaves Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "No". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Nunca pasa nada: Jamenei

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.

To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. 

Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.

Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.

Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Llevará a cabo Estados Unidos un ciberataque contra Irán antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Iran between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Iranian land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; the Iranian Law Enforcement Command is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces; all sub-branches of the Artesh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (including the Basij), and Law Enforcement Command are part of the Iranian Armed forces.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Enfrentamiento militar entre EE. UU. e Irán antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Atacarán Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania a Irán antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Estados Unidos o Israel atacarán a Irán antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the terminal will not be considered for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


¿Será atacada la terminal petrolera de la Isla Kharg antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Qatar is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Qatari territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Ataque iraní a Qatar antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Israel is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Ataque de Irán a Israel antes del 28 de febrero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

¿Se romperá el alto el fuego entre Israel e Irán antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Intento de golpe de Estado en Irán antes del 30 de junio?

On January 14, 2026, widespread internet and mobile service outages affected customers of major U.S. telecommunications providers, including Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, across multiple states. You can read more about that here: reuters.com/business/media-telecom/verizons-network-down-thousands-users-us-downdetector-shows-2026-01-14.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting, that the January 14, 2026, internet and mobile service outages were caused by, originating from, directed by, or officially attributed to Iran or any Iranian proxy by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Accusations from the U.S. government that are hedged or expressed with ambiguity (e.g., "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count.

This market will resolve once official statements from the U.S. government , or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether the January 14, 2026, outages were caused by an Iranian cyberattack. If the cause of the outages has not been attributed to Iran by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Cortes de móviles/internet en EE. UU. causados por Irán?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Ali Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


¿Khamenei saldrá de Irán antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?

This market will resolve to "US" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before Israel does.

If Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before the United States does, this market will resolve to "Israel". 

If no qualifying strike occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, strikes occur simultaneously, there is ambiguity about the order of strikes, or no consensus can be reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Estados Unidos o Israel atacarán a Irán primero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more Iranian government officials physically visit the White House complex in Washington, D.C., for any diplomatic engagement, meeting, or official reception by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying officials must be formal representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran, including but not limited to ministers, ambassadors, diplomats, envoys, or senior advisors officially affiliated with the Iranian government.

The visit must take place on White House grounds. Engagements held elsewhere in Washington, D.C., at other U.S. government facilities, or via virtual platforms do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Visitarán funcionarios iraníes la Casa Blanca antes del 31 de enero?

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Entrará Reza Pahlavi a Irán antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Masoud Pezeshkian will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as President, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

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Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

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Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

Contexto del Mercado

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

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