Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Anthropic (98.7%) to hold the #2 artificial intelligence model position on LMArena's Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's stable second-place Arena Elo score of around 1503—trailing only Google's newly dominant Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505—bolstered by millions of recent blind human votes that prioritize substantive reasoning over verbose styling. This positioning stems from Anthropic's iterative improvements in large language model capabilities, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok and OpenAI's GPT iterations amid a competitive landscape where style control filters mitigate superficial biases. Realistic challenges include a surprise late-March model release from OpenAI or DeepSeek garnering enough votes to leapfrog Claude before the final snapshot, though high vote volumes and no credible leaks make such shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 98.6%
xAI <1%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$568,902 Vol.
$568,902 Vol.
31 mar 2026
Anthropic
99%
xAI
1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 98.6%
xAI <1%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$568,902 Vol.
$568,902 Vol.
31 mar 2026
Anthropic
$56,578 Vol.
99%
xAI
$23,893 Vol.
1%
OpenAI
$93,002 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$96,493 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$61,123 Vol.
<1%
$59,884 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$25,374 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$111,098 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$25,158 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$16,300 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Anthropic (98.7%) to hold the #2 artificial intelligence model position on LMArena's Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's stable second-place Arena Elo score of around 1503—trailing only Google's newly dominant Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505—bolstered by millions of recent blind human votes that prioritize substantive reasoning over verbose styling. This positioning stems from Anthropic's iterative improvements in large language model capabilities, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok and OpenAI's GPT iterations amid a competitive landscape where style control filters mitigate superficial biases. Realistic challenges include a surprise late-March model release from OpenAI or DeepSeek garnering enough votes to leapfrog Claude before the final snapshot, though high vote volumes and no credible leaks make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$568,902Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Anthropic (98.7%) to hold the #2 artificial intelligence model position on LMArena's Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's stable second-place Arena Elo score of around 1503—trailing only Google's newly dominant Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505—bolstered by millions of recent blind human votes that prioritize substantive reasoning over verbose styling. This positioning stems from Anthropic's iterative improvements in large language model capabilities, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok and OpenAI's GPT iterations amid a competitive landscape where style control filters mitigate superficial biases. Realistic challenges include a surprise late-March model release from OpenAI or DeepSeek garnering enough votes to leapfrog Claude before the final snapshot, though high vote volumes and no credible leaks make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$568,902Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Anthropic (98.7%) to hold the #2 artificial intelligence model position on LMArena's Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's stable second-place Arena Elo score of around 1503—trailing only Google's newly dominant Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505—bolstered by millions of recent blind human votes that prioritize substantive reasoning over verbose styling. This positioning stems from Anthropic's iterative improvements in large language model capabilities, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok and OpenAI's GPT iterations amid a competitive landscape where style control filters mitigate superficial biases. Realistic challenges include a surprise late-March model release from OpenAI or DeepSeek garnering enough votes to leapfrog Claude before the final snapshot, though high vote volumes and no credible leaks make such shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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