Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 48% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end June 2026, per LMSYS Chatbot Arena rankings, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant hold on the top two spots (Elo 1504 thinking variant, 1500 base) as of March 26 amid intense frontier competition. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails closely at #3 (1493 Elo), buoyed by its February release and reasoning benchmark leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (launched March 5, #6 at 1484) signals potential for a mid-year leapfrog via GPT-5.5. xAI's Grok 4.20 betas (#4) and DeepSeek's open-source gains add uncertainty, with traders eyeing Q2 releases and evaluations as key catalysts that could unseat Anthropic from #1 but cement #2.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 48%
Google 23%
OpenAI 20%
DeepSeek 8.4%
$331,934 Vol.
$331,934 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
48%
23%
OpenAI
20%
DeepSeek
8%
xAI
6%
Meituan
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 48%
Google 23%
OpenAI 20%
DeepSeek 8.4%
$331,934 Vol.
$331,934 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$4,269 Vol.
48%
$2,135 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$31,022 Vol.
20%
DeepSeek
$244,896 Vol.
8%
xAI
$10,804 Vol.
6%
Meituan
$30,470 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$1,248 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$890 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,648 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,551 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 48% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end June 2026, per LMSYS Chatbot Arena rankings, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant hold on the top two spots (Elo 1504 thinking variant, 1500 base) as of March 26 amid intense frontier competition. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails closely at #3 (1493 Elo), buoyed by its February release and reasoning benchmark leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (launched March 5, #6 at 1484) signals potential for a mid-year leapfrog via GPT-5.5. xAI's Grok 4.20 betas (#4) and DeepSeek's open-source gains add uncertainty, with traders eyeing Q2 releases and evaluations as key catalysts that could unseat Anthropic from #1 but cement #2.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$331,934Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 48% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end June 2026, per LMSYS Chatbot Arena rankings, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant hold on the top two spots (Elo 1504 thinking variant, 1500 base) as of March 26 amid intense frontier competition. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails closely at #3 (1493 Elo), buoyed by its February release and reasoning benchmark leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (launched March 5, #6 at 1484) signals potential for a mid-year leapfrog via GPT-5.5. xAI's Grok 4.20 betas (#4) and DeepSeek's open-source gains add uncertainty, with traders eyeing Q2 releases and evaluations as key catalysts that could unseat Anthropic from #1 but cement #2.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$331,934Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 48% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end June 2026, per LMSYS Chatbot Arena rankings, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant hold on the top two spots (Elo 1504 thinking variant, 1500 base) as of March 26 amid intense frontier competition. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails closely at #3 (1493 Elo), buoyed by its February release and reasoning benchmark leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (launched March 5, #6 at 1484) signals potential for a mid-year leapfrog via GPT-5.5. xAI's Grok 4.20 betas (#4) and DeepSeek's open-source gains add uncertainty, with traders eyeing Q2 releases and evaluations as key catalysts that could unseat Anthropic from #1 but cement #2.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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