US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remain stalled amid ongoing military strikes and hardened positions, with Tehran rejecting Washington's 15-point proposal delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan while submitting its own counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's extension of a March 27 deadline for de-escalation and Secretary of State comments today signaling a potential resolution in weeks—not months—reflect recent diplomatic overtures following UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states earlier this month. No agreement has materialized despite indirect talks, as Iran vows relentless retaliation and the US asserts core objectives largely met, leaving traders focused on imminent envoy meetings and escalation risks before any truce.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán por...?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán por...?
$56,922,898 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
31 de marzo
3%
7 de abril
11%
15 de abril
22%
30 de abril
39%
31 de mayo
54%
30 de junio
63%
31 de diciembre
76%
$56,922,898 Vol.
31 de marzo
$35,967,070 Vol.
3%
7 de abril
$910,611 Vol.
11%
15 de abril
$5,513,907 Vol.
22%
30 de abril
$6,173,130 Vol.
39%
31 de mayo
$2,167,202 Vol.
54%
30 de junio
$2,239,902 Vol.
63%
31 de diciembre
$462,591 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remain stalled amid ongoing military strikes and hardened positions, with Tehran rejecting Washington's 15-point proposal delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan while submitting its own counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's extension of a March 27 deadline for de-escalation and Secretary of State comments today signaling a potential resolution in weeks—not months—reflect recent diplomatic overtures following UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states earlier this month. No agreement has materialized despite indirect talks, as Iran vows relentless retaliation and the US asserts core objectives largely met, leaving traders focused on imminent envoy meetings and escalation risks before any truce.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volumen
$56,922,898Mercado abierto
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remain stalled amid ongoing military strikes and hardened positions, with Tehran rejecting Washington's 15-point proposal delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan while submitting its own counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's extension of a March 27 deadline for de-escalation and Secretary of State comments today signaling a potential resolution in weeks—not months—reflect recent diplomatic overtures following UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states earlier this month. No agreement has materialized despite indirect talks, as Iran vows relentless retaliation and the US asserts core objectives largely met, leaving traders focused on imminent envoy meetings and escalation risks before any truce.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$56,922,898Mercado abierto
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remain stalled amid ongoing military strikes and hardened positions, with Tehran rejecting Washington's 15-point proposal delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan while submitting its own counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's extension of a March 27 deadline for de-escalation and Secretary of State comments today signaling a potential resolution in weeks—not months—reflect recent diplomatic overtures following UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states earlier this month. No agreement has materialized despite indirect talks, as Iran vows relentless retaliation and the US asserts core objectives largely met, leaving traders focused on imminent envoy meetings and escalation risks before any truce.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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