Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a >$200M domestic opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 43% implied probability, driven by surging presales reported in the past 48 hours that outpace initial trackers and evoke the 2023 original's record-shattering $204M five-day debut over Easter. Recent boosts include the March 9 final trailer generating massive online buzz and Nintendo's March 19 merchandise launch fueling family demand, positioning it ahead of conservative forecasts like Deadline's $160M+ five-day estimate from March 12. Lower bins like 170-180M (15%) reflect analyst caution amid competition from holdovers, but strong video game IP momentum and wide theatrical rollout on April 1 suggest potential for walk-up upside in this closely watched family blockbuster.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 43%
170-180m 15.1%
190-200m 14.3%
160-170m 12.6%
$261,645 Vol.
$261,645 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
8%
160-170m
13%
170-180m
15%
180-190m
10%
190-200m
14%
>200m
43%
>200m 43%
170-180m 15.1%
190-200m 14.3%
160-170m 12.6%
$261,645 Vol.
$261,645 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$19,748 Vol.
8%
160-170m
$19,553 Vol.
13%
170-180m
$18,226 Vol.
15%
180-190m
$18,105 Vol.
10%
190-200m
$18,203 Vol.
14%
>200m
$167,811 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a >$200M domestic opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 43% implied probability, driven by surging presales reported in the past 48 hours that outpace initial trackers and evoke the 2023 original's record-shattering $204M five-day debut over Easter. Recent boosts include the March 9 final trailer generating massive online buzz and Nintendo's March 19 merchandise launch fueling family demand, positioning it ahead of conservative forecasts like Deadline's $160M+ five-day estimate from March 12. Lower bins like 170-180M (15%) reflect analyst caution amid competition from holdovers, but strong video game IP momentum and wide theatrical rollout on April 1 suggest potential for walk-up upside in this closely watched family blockbuster.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$261,645Fecha de finalización
Apr 6, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a >$200M domestic opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 43% implied probability, driven by surging presales reported in the past 48 hours that outpace initial trackers and evoke the 2023 original's record-shattering $204M five-day debut over Easter. Recent boosts include the March 9 final trailer generating massive online buzz and Nintendo's March 19 merchandise launch fueling family demand, positioning it ahead of conservative forecasts like Deadline's $160M+ five-day estimate from March 12. Lower bins like 170-180M (15%) reflect analyst caution amid competition from holdovers, but strong video game IP momentum and wide theatrical rollout on April 1 suggest potential for walk-up upside in this closely watched family blockbuster.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$261,645Fecha de finalización
Apr 6, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a >$200M domestic opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 43% implied probability, driven by surging presales reported in the past 48 hours that outpace initial trackers and evoke the 2023 original's record-shattering $204M five-day debut over Easter. Recent boosts include the March 9 final trailer generating massive online buzz and Nintendo's March 19 merchandise launch fueling family demand, positioning it ahead of conservative forecasts like Deadline's $160M+ five-day estimate from March 12. Lower bins like 170-180M (15%) reflect analyst caution amid competition from holdovers, but strong video game IP momentum and wide theatrical rollout on April 1 suggest potential for walk-up upside in this closely watched family blockbuster.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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