Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting CFO Sarah Friar's recent warnings that CEO Sam Altman's Q4 timeline is overly aggressive amid internal rifts, projected $121 billion AI compute spending through 2028, and profitability potentially delayed until 2029. The company's October 2025 shift to a for-profit benefit corporation enabled public listing paths, but massive cash burn, opaque finances, and rising regulatory scrutiny on artificial intelligence labs have fueled skepticism. High-valuation buckets like 1.5T+ at 8.8% capture optimism from $852 billion private rounds, yet traders await S-1 filing or earnings previews to shift odds before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 63%
1,5 billones+ 8.8%
1.25T–1.5T 7.1%
<500 mil millones 6.0%
$1,589,358 Vol.
$1,589,358 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
6%
500–750B
4%
750B–1T
5%
1 billón–1,25 billones
4%
1.25T–1.5T
7%
1,5 billones+
9%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
63%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 63%
1,5 billones+ 8.8%
1.25T–1.5T 7.1%
<500 mil millones 6.0%
$1,589,358 Vol.
$1,589,358 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
$260,295 Vol.
6%
500–750B
$141,899 Vol.
4%
750B–1T
$136,073 Vol.
5%
1 billón–1,25 billones
$177,967 Vol.
4%
1.25T–1.5T
$490,239 Vol.
7%
1,5 billones+
$95,491 Vol.
9%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
$287,394 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting CFO Sarah Friar's recent warnings that CEO Sam Altman's Q4 timeline is overly aggressive amid internal rifts, projected $121 billion AI compute spending through 2028, and profitability potentially delayed until 2029. The company's October 2025 shift to a for-profit benefit corporation enabled public listing paths, but massive cash burn, opaque finances, and rising regulatory scrutiny on artificial intelligence labs have fueled skepticism. High-valuation buckets like 1.5T+ at 8.8% capture optimism from $852 billion private rounds, yet traders await S-1 filing or earnings previews to shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,589,358Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting CFO Sarah Friar's recent warnings that CEO Sam Altman's Q4 timeline is overly aggressive amid internal rifts, projected $121 billion AI compute spending through 2028, and profitability potentially delayed until 2029. The company's October 2025 shift to a for-profit benefit corporation enabled public listing paths, but massive cash burn, opaque finances, and rising regulatory scrutiny on artificial intelligence labs have fueled skepticism. High-valuation buckets like 1.5T+ at 8.8% capture optimism from $852 billion private rounds, yet traders await S-1 filing or earnings previews to shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,589,358Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting CFO Sarah Friar's recent warnings that CEO Sam Altman's Q4 timeline is overly aggressive amid internal rifts, projected $121 billion AI compute spending through 2028, and profitability potentially delayed until 2029. The company's October 2025 shift to a for-profit benefit corporation enabled public listing paths, but massive cash burn, opaque finances, and rising regulatory scrutiny on artificial intelligence labs have fueled skepticism. High-valuation buckets like 1.5T+ at 8.8% capture optimism from $852 billion private rounds, yet traders await S-1 filing or earnings previews to shift odds before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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