Recent mega-funding rounds, including a $110 billion raise at a $730 billion pre-money valuation in late February 2026 followed by an additional $10 billion infusion, have anchored Polymarket trader consensus around a potential OpenAI IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range at 36% implied probability, reflecting private secondary trading levels of $650–760 billion and aggressive infrastructure scaling. However, the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome at 31.5% underscores persistent cash burn exceeding $14 billion annually against $20 billion-plus revenue, alongside cost-cutting moves like Sora's termination and Disney deal scrap amid Wall Street profitability scrutiny. Intensifying rivalry with Anthropic, eyeing an October 2026 IPO at over $600 billion with stronger enterprise positioning, heightens valuation compression risks, while Microsoft's accelerating in-house AI development poses partnership uncertainties; Q4 2026 listing remains the pivotal catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 32%
1.5T+ 27%
1T–1.25T 21%
<500B 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
7%
500–750 mil millones
-
750B–1T
35%
1T–1.25T
21%
1,25T–1,5T
16%
1.5T+
27%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
32%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 32%
1.5T+ 27%
1T–1.25T 21%
<500B 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$0 Vol.
7%
500–750 mil millones
$0 Vol.
-
750B–1T
$37 Vol.
35%
1T–1.25T
$2,790 Vol.
21%
1,25T–1,5T
$105 Vol.
16%
1.5T+
$0 Vol.
27%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
$0 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent mega-funding rounds, including a $110 billion raise at a $730 billion pre-money valuation in late February 2026 followed by an additional $10 billion infusion, have anchored Polymarket trader consensus around a potential OpenAI IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range at 36% implied probability, reflecting private secondary trading levels of $650–760 billion and aggressive infrastructure scaling. However, the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome at 31.5% underscores persistent cash burn exceeding $14 billion annually against $20 billion-plus revenue, alongside cost-cutting moves like Sora's termination and Disney deal scrap amid Wall Street profitability scrutiny. Intensifying rivalry with Anthropic, eyeing an October 2026 IPO at over $600 billion with stronger enterprise positioning, heightens valuation compression risks, while Microsoft's accelerating in-house AI development poses partnership uncertainties; Q4 2026 listing remains the pivotal catalyst.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volumen
$2,932Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent mega-funding rounds, including a $110 billion raise at a $730 billion pre-money valuation in late February 2026 followed by an additional $10 billion infusion, have anchored Polymarket trader consensus around a potential OpenAI IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range at 36% implied probability, reflecting private secondary trading levels of $650–760 billion and aggressive infrastructure scaling. However, the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome at 31.5% underscores persistent cash burn exceeding $14 billion annually against $20 billion-plus revenue, alongside cost-cutting moves like Sora's termination and Disney deal scrap amid Wall Street profitability scrutiny. Intensifying rivalry with Anthropic, eyeing an October 2026 IPO at over $600 billion with stronger enterprise positioning, heightens valuation compression risks, while Microsoft's accelerating in-house AI development poses partnership uncertainties; Q4 2026 listing remains the pivotal catalyst.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$2,932Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent mega-funding rounds, including a $110 billion raise at a $730 billion pre-money valuation in late February 2026 followed by an additional $10 billion infusion, have anchored Polymarket trader consensus around a potential OpenAI IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range at 36% implied probability, reflecting private secondary trading levels of $650–760 billion and aggressive infrastructure scaling. However, the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome at 31.5% underscores persistent cash burn exceeding $14 billion annually against $20 billion-plus revenue, alongside cost-cutting moves like Sora's termination and Disney deal scrap amid Wall Street profitability scrutiny. Intensifying rivalry with Anthropic, eyeing an October 2026 IPO at over $600 billion with stronger enterprise positioning, heightens valuation compression risks, while Microsoft's accelerating in-house AI development poses partnership uncertainties; Q4 2026 listing remains the pivotal catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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