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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 56%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 6.8%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,281,714 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 56%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 6.8%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,281,714 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría

$23,607 Vol.

56%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$16,656 Vol.

16%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel

$1,008,215 Vol.

7%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido

$557,764 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón

$348,666 Vol.

3%

Putin - Presidente de Rusia

$351,567 Vol.

2%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania

$12,361 Vol.

2%

Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.

$206,504 Vol.

1%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia

$13,115 Vol.

1%

Ninguno antes de 2027

$11,929 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente de Francia

$68,245 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente de Palestina

$58,415 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretario General del PCCh

$39,717 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primer ministro español

$11,571 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela

$24,776 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil

$40,382 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia

$55,460 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria

$28,448 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía

$76,350 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia

$58,929 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Gobernador de California

$113,421 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Canciller alemán

$29,060 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México

$64,620 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte

$25,091 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente de Argentina

$36,846 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 positions Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the trader consensus favorite at 56.5% to exit power before 2027, driven by recent polls showing opposition Tisza party leader Péter Magyar widening a lead over Fidesz amid economic stagnation, EU aid disputes, and Russian interference allegations. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel's 15.5% odds reflect intensifying US pressure for leadership transition in ongoing economic crisis talks, including oil sanctions and humanitarian strains. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.8% faces snap election risks if the March 31 budget fails amid stagnant polls despite Iran conflict. These near-term catalysts explain the low 1.4% on "None before 2027," underscoring political volatility in trader assessments.

Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 positions Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the trader consensus favorite at 56.5% to exit power before 2027, driven by recent polls showing opposition Tisza party leader Péter Magyar widening a lead over Fidesz amid economic stagnation, EU aid disputes, and Russian interference allegations. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel's 15.5% odds reflect intensifying US pressure for leadership transition in ongoing economic crisis talks, including oil sanctions and humanitarian strains. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.8% faces snap election risks if the March 31 budget fails amid stagnant polls despite Iran conflict. These near-term catalysts explain the low 1.4% on "None before 2027," underscoring political volatility in trader assessments.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 positions Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the trader consensus favorite at 56.5% to exit power before 2027, driven by recent polls showing opposition Tisza party leader Péter Magyar widening a lead over Fidesz amid economic stagnation, EU aid disputes, and Russian interference allegations. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel's 15.5% odds reflect intensifying US pressure for leadership transition in ongoing economic crisis talks, including oil sanctions and humanitarian strains. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.8% faces snap election risks if the March 31 budget fails amid stagnant polls despite Iran conflict. These near-term catalysts explain the low 1.4% on "None before 2027," underscoring political volatility in trader assessments.

Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 positions Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the trader consensus favorite at 56.5% to exit power before 2027, driven by recent polls showing opposition Tisza party leader Péter Magyar widening a lead over Fidesz amid economic stagnation, EU aid disputes, and Russian interference allegations. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel's 15.5% odds reflect intensifying US pressure for leadership transition in ongoing economic crisis talks, including oil sanctions and humanitarian strains. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.8% faces snap election risks if the March 31 budget fails amid stagnant polls despite Iran conflict. These near-term catalysts explain the low 1.4% on "None before 2027," underscoring political volatility in trader assessments.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 25 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 56%, seguido de "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 16%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 56¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" ha generado $3.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?", explora los 25 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 56%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 16%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.