Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon expanded on March 26 with additional troops deployed, targeting Hezbollah command centers and weapons depots amid reciprocal rocket and drone attacks from the group, which reported over 45 operations that day. This intensification stems from Hezbollah's barrages since early March, linked to the broader Iran-Israel conflict, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and infrastructure. Domestic opposition in Israel is mounting, with critics decrying military strain and unclear objectives, while Lebanon grapples with evacuations and humanitarian fallout. Traders monitor UN diplomatic efforts, potential ceasefire talks, or escalation signals like further incursions south of the Litani River, which could sway probabilities on imminent military actions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
$3,520,365 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 20
100%
March 28
99%
March 29
97%
March 30
97%
March 31
96%
$3,520,365 Vol.
March 20
$3,346,948 Vol.
100%
March 28
$39,970 Vol.
99%
March 29
$12,415 Vol.
97%
March 30
$4,174 Vol.
97%
March 31
$24,444 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon expanded on March 26 with additional troops deployed, targeting Hezbollah command centers and weapons depots amid reciprocal rocket and drone attacks from the group, which reported over 45 operations that day. This intensification stems from Hezbollah's barrages since early March, linked to the broader Iran-Israel conflict, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and infrastructure. Domestic opposition in Israel is mounting, with critics decrying military strain and unclear objectives, while Lebanon grapples with evacuations and humanitarian fallout. Traders monitor UN diplomatic efforts, potential ceasefire talks, or escalation signals like further incursions south of the Litani River, which could sway probabilities on imminent military actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
Volumen
$3,520,365Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon expanded on March 26 with additional troops deployed, targeting Hezbollah command centers and weapons depots amid reciprocal rocket and drone attacks from the group, which reported over 45 operations that day. This intensification stems from Hezbollah's barrages since early March, linked to the broader Iran-Israel conflict, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and infrastructure. Domestic opposition in Israel is mounting, with critics decrying military strain and unclear objectives, while Lebanon grapples with evacuations and humanitarian fallout. Traders monitor UN diplomatic efforts, potential ceasefire talks, or escalation signals like further incursions south of the Litani River, which could sway probabilities on imminent military actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$3,520,365Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon expanded on March 26 with additional troops deployed, targeting Hezbollah command centers and weapons depots amid reciprocal rocket and drone attacks from the group, which reported over 45 operations that day. This intensification stems from Hezbollah's barrages since early March, linked to the broader Iran-Israel conflict, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and infrastructure. Domestic opposition in Israel is mounting, with critics decrying military strain and unclear objectives, while Lebanon grapples with evacuations and humanitarian fallout. Traders monitor UN diplomatic efforts, potential ceasefire talks, or escalation signals like further incursions south of the Litani River, which could sway probabilities on imminent military actions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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