Trader consensus prices Israel at 100% and Jordan at 100% for Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting repeated missile barrages on Israeli territory, including a recent cluster bomb strike on Tel Aviv amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war now in its fifth week. Elevated odds for Gulf states—Bahrain (96%), UAE (93%), Kuwait (91%)—stem from Tehran's claimed strikes on US-linked targets in Kuwait and threats to regional bases hosting American forces, exacerbated by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Qatar sits at 61% following Riyadh missile reports. Israeli overnight airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and US Secretary of State signals of a potential weeks-long conclusion heighten near-term retaliation risks before resolution, though Trump-extended deadlines hint at ceasefire diplomacy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$129,069 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
97%
UAE
92%
Kuwait
91%
Iraq
64%
Qatar
60%
Oman
56%
Lebanon
31%
Yemen
21%
Syria
28%
Azerbaijan
10%
Turkey
9%
Pakistan
8%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
4%
Poland
4%
Germany
3%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Ukraine
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
2%
Georgia
2%
Spain
2%
Armenia
2%
$129,069 Vol.
Bahrain
$1,750 Vol.
97%
UAE
$566 Vol.
92%
Kuwait
$1,102 Vol.
91%
Iraq
$462 Vol.
64%
Qatar
$280 Vol.
60%
Oman
$1,869 Vol.
56%
Lebanon
$795 Vol.
31%
Yemen
$317 Vol.
21%
Syria
$283 Vol.
28%
Azerbaijan
$543 Vol.
10%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
9%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,593 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
4%
Poland
$27,642 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,233 Vol.
3%
Italy
$110 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Ukraine
$1,340 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$12,812 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$579 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus prices Israel at 100% and Jordan at 100% for Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting repeated missile barrages on Israeli territory, including a recent cluster bomb strike on Tel Aviv amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war now in its fifth week. Elevated odds for Gulf states—Bahrain (96%), UAE (93%), Kuwait (91%)—stem from Tehran's claimed strikes on US-linked targets in Kuwait and threats to regional bases hosting American forces, exacerbated by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Qatar sits at 61% following Riyadh missile reports. Israeli overnight airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and US Secretary of State signals of a potential weeks-long conclusion heighten near-term retaliation risks before resolution, though Trump-extended deadlines hint at ceasefire diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volumen
$129,069Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus prices Israel at 100% and Jordan at 100% for Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting repeated missile barrages on Israeli territory, including a recent cluster bomb strike on Tel Aviv amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war now in its fifth week. Elevated odds for Gulf states—Bahrain (96%), UAE (93%), Kuwait (91%)—stem from Tehran's claimed strikes on US-linked targets in Kuwait and threats to regional bases hosting American forces, exacerbated by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Qatar sits at 61% following Riyadh missile reports. Israeli overnight airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and US Secretary of State signals of a potential weeks-long conclusion heighten near-term retaliation risks before resolution, though Trump-extended deadlines hint at ceasefire diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$129,069Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices Israel at 100% and Jordan at 100% for Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting repeated missile barrages on Israeli territory, including a recent cluster bomb strike on Tel Aviv amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war now in its fifth week. Elevated odds for Gulf states—Bahrain (96%), UAE (93%), Kuwait (91%)—stem from Tehran's claimed strikes on US-linked targets in Kuwait and threats to regional bases hosting American forces, exacerbated by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Qatar sits at 61% following Riyadh missile reports. Israeli overnight airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and US Secretary of State signals of a potential weeks-long conclusion heighten near-term retaliation risks before resolution, though Trump-extended deadlines hint at ceasefire diplomacy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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