Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war entering its fourth week as of March 28, 2026, trader sentiment hinges on recent Iranian missile barrages targeting Israel—eight waves reported since late March—and strikes injuring US troops at a Saudi base, alongside today's first Iran-backed Houthi missile attack on Israel. President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pausing US strikes on energy infrastructure amid threats of closure and retaliatory hits on Gulf power plants. No direct Iranian ground invasion or major new fronts have materialized, but diplomatic signals remain mixed, with Iran rejecting talks while listing ceasefire conditions including reparations. Upcoming April 6 developments could trigger further airstrikes, escalation, or de-escalation, shaping probabilities for additional military action by April 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$130,377 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
96%
UAE
92%
Kuwait
91%
Iraq
67%
Qatar
60%
Oman
42%
Syria
29%
Lebanon
28%
Yemen
21%
Pakistan
11%
Azerbaijan
9%
Turkey
8%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
5%
Poland
4%
Germany
4%
Italy
3%
Ukraine
3%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
3%
Georgia
2%
Spain
2%
Armenia
2%
$130,377 Vol.
Bahrain
$2,451 Vol.
96%
UAE
$566 Vol.
92%
Kuwait
$1,125 Vol.
91%
Iraq
$482 Vol.
67%
Qatar
$580 Vol.
60%
Oman
$2,008 Vol.
42%
Syria
$283 Vol.
29%
Lebanon
$895 Vol.
28%
Yemen
$317 Vol.
21%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
11%
Azerbaijan
$543 Vol.
9%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,593 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
5%
Poland
$27,667 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,233 Vol.
4%
Italy
$110 Vol.
3%
Ukraine
$1,340 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$12,812 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$579 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war entering its fourth week as of March 28, 2026, trader sentiment hinges on recent Iranian missile barrages targeting Israel—eight waves reported since late March—and strikes injuring US troops at a Saudi base, alongside today's first Iran-backed Houthi missile attack on Israel. President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pausing US strikes on energy infrastructure amid threats of closure and retaliatory hits on Gulf power plants. No direct Iranian ground invasion or major new fronts have materialized, but diplomatic signals remain mixed, with Iran rejecting talks while listing ceasefire conditions including reparations. Upcoming April 6 developments could trigger further airstrikes, escalation, or de-escalation, shaping probabilities for additional military action by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volumen
$130,377Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Disputado
Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war entering its fourth week as of March 28, 2026, trader sentiment hinges on recent Iranian missile barrages targeting Israel—eight waves reported since late March—and strikes injuring US troops at a Saudi base, alongside today's first Iran-backed Houthi missile attack on Israel. President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pausing US strikes on energy infrastructure amid threats of closure and retaliatory hits on Gulf power plants. No direct Iranian ground invasion or major new fronts have materialized, but diplomatic signals remain mixed, with Iran rejecting talks while listing ceasefire conditions including reparations. Upcoming April 6 developments could trigger further airstrikes, escalation, or de-escalation, shaping probabilities for additional military action by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$130,377Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Disputado
Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war entering its fourth week as of March 28, 2026, trader sentiment hinges on recent Iranian missile barrages targeting Israel—eight waves reported since late March—and strikes injuring US troops at a Saudi base, alongside today's first Iran-backed Houthi missile attack on Israel. President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pausing US strikes on energy infrastructure amid threats of closure and retaliatory hits on Gulf power plants. No direct Iranian ground invasion or major new fronts have materialized, but diplomatic signals remain mixed, with Iran rejecting talks while listing ceasefire conditions including reparations. Upcoming April 6 developments could trigger further airstrikes, escalation, or de-escalation, shaping probabilities for additional military action by April 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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