Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts project Tokyo's highest temperature on March 26 at precisely 13°C, underpinning the market's 99.2% implied probability as ensemble models converge on cool, stable conditions dominated by a persistent high-pressure ridge limiting solar insolation and daytime warming. Recent observational data from Haneda and central Tokyo stations show overnight lows near 8°C and cloudy skies suppressing highs, consistent with March climatology where averages range 11-14°C amid early spring chill. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs shows negligible spread, with no incoming warm advection or frontal activity. Realistic shifts could arise from prolonged clear skies enhancing surface heating to 14°C+ or measurement variances at official sites, though JMA's high-confidence outlook and proximity to resolution minimize upside risks for alternatives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 26?
13°C 99.2%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C or higher <1%
$116,722 Vol.
$116,722 Vol.
13°C
99%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99.2%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C or higher <1%
$116,722 Vol.
$116,722 Vol.
13°C
99%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts project Tokyo's highest temperature on March 26 at precisely 13°C, underpinning the market's 99.2% implied probability as ensemble models converge on cool, stable conditions dominated by a persistent high-pressure ridge limiting solar insolation and daytime warming. Recent observational data from Haneda and central Tokyo stations show overnight lows near 8°C and cloudy skies suppressing highs, consistent with March climatology where averages range 11-14°C amid early spring chill. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs shows negligible spread, with no incoming warm advection or frontal activity. Realistic shifts could arise from prolonged clear skies enhancing surface heating to 14°C+ or measurement variances at official sites, though JMA's high-confidence outlook and proximity to resolution minimize upside risks for alternatives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes