CDC FluSurv-NET data for week 11 (ending March 21, 2026) reported a cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—the third highest since the 2010-2011 season—driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 98.8% implied probability for 80–85 in week 12. Declining flu activity, with outpatient respiratory illness visits at 2.9% (below baseline) and weekly hospitalization rates dropping to an observed 1.1 per 100,000 (estimated 1.4–1.9 after lags), supports minimal cumulative growth into the low 80s. FluSight ensemble forecasts predict further decreases in new admissions nationally for week 12, amid dominant H3N2 circulation and season-end dynamics. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected reporting delays inflating preliminary week 12 figures or a late-season rebound, though wide prediction intervals underscore uncertainty; the next FluView report is expected April 4.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
80–85 99.0%
<75 <1%
75–80 <1%
90–95 <1%
$19,002 Vol.
$19,002 Vol.
3 abr 2026
<75
1%
75–80
<1%
80–85
99%
85–90
<1%
90–95
<1%
95+
<1%
80–85 99.0%
<75 <1%
75–80 <1%
90–95 <1%
$19,002 Vol.
$19,002 Vol.
3 abr 2026
<75
$1,158 Vol.
1%
75–80
$1,295 Vol.
<1%
80–85
$9,786 Vol.
99%
85–90
$1,257 Vol.
<1%
90–95
$4,405 Vol.
<1%
95+
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.CDC FluSurv-NET data for week 11 (ending March 21, 2026) reported a cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—the third highest since the 2010-2011 season—driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 98.8% implied probability for 80–85 in week 12. Declining flu activity, with outpatient respiratory illness visits at 2.9% (below baseline) and weekly hospitalization rates dropping to an observed 1.1 per 100,000 (estimated 1.4–1.9 after lags), supports minimal cumulative growth into the low 80s. FluSight ensemble forecasts predict further decreases in new admissions nationally for week 12, amid dominant H3N2 circulation and season-end dynamics. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected reporting delays inflating preliminary week 12 figures or a late-season rebound, though wide prediction intervals underscore uncertainty; the next FluView report is expected April 4.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Volumen
$19,002Fecha de finalización
3 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.CDC FluSurv-NET data for week 11 (ending March 21, 2026) reported a cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—the third highest since the 2010-2011 season—driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 98.8% implied probability for 80–85 in week 12. Declining flu activity, with outpatient respiratory illness visits at 2.9% (below baseline) and weekly hospitalization rates dropping to an observed 1.1 per 100,000 (estimated 1.4–1.9 after lags), supports minimal cumulative growth into the low 80s. FluSight ensemble forecasts predict further decreases in new admissions nationally for week 12, amid dominant H3N2 circulation and season-end dynamics. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected reporting delays inflating preliminary week 12 figures or a late-season rebound, though wide prediction intervals underscore uncertainty; the next FluView report is expected April 4.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volumen
$19,002Fecha de finalización
3 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...CDC FluSurv-NET data for week 11 (ending March 21, 2026) reported a cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—the third highest since the 2010-2011 season—driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 98.8% implied probability for 80–85 in week 12. Declining flu activity, with outpatient respiratory illness visits at 2.9% (below baseline) and weekly hospitalization rates dropping to an observed 1.1 per 100,000 (estimated 1.4–1.9 after lags), supports minimal cumulative growth into the low 80s. FluSight ensemble forecasts predict further decreases in new admissions nationally for week 12, amid dominant H3N2 circulation and season-end dynamics. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected reporting delays inflating preliminary week 12 figures or a late-season rebound, though wide prediction intervals underscore uncertainty; the next FluView report is expected April 4.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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