Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows March 2026 global surface air temperature anomalies ranking outside the top three hottest on record—likely fourth or lower—trailing records set during the 2023-2024 El Niño peak that boosted anomalies by 0.2-0.3°C above neutral conditions. The weak La Niña event fading into ENSO-neutral through early 2026 suppressed temperatures, consistent with February's fifth-warmest ranking and historical patterns where La Niña phases yield cooler global averages. Trader consensus at 98% for "4th or lower" reflects this observational evidence, backed by real capital. Final bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, due early May, could include minor revisions from ocean measurements, but significant upward shifts to top-three status remain improbable given the margin.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿El 1, 2 y 3 de marzo de 2026 son los más calurosos registrados?
¿El 1, 2 y 3 de marzo de 2026 son los más calurosos registrados?
4.º o inferior 98.3%
El más caluroso <1%
3º más caluroso <1%
Segundo más caluroso <1%
$276,388 Vol.
$276,388 Vol.
10 abr 2026
El más caluroso
<1%
Segundo más caluroso
<1%
3º más caluroso
<1%
4.º o inferior
98%
4.º o inferior 98.3%
El más caluroso <1%
3º más caluroso <1%
Segundo más caluroso <1%
$276,388 Vol.
$276,388 Vol.
10 abr 2026
El más caluroso
$96,972 Vol.
<1%
Segundo más caluroso
$54,289 Vol.
<1%
3º más caluroso
$95,197 Vol.
<1%
4.º o inferior
$29,929 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows March 2026 global surface air temperature anomalies ranking outside the top three hottest on record—likely fourth or lower—trailing records set during the 2023-2024 El Niño peak that boosted anomalies by 0.2-0.3°C above neutral conditions. The weak La Niña event fading into ENSO-neutral through early 2026 suppressed temperatures, consistent with February's fifth-warmest ranking and historical patterns where La Niña phases yield cooler global averages. Trader consensus at 98% for "4th or lower" reflects this observational evidence, backed by real capital. Final bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, due early May, could include minor revisions from ocean measurements, but significant upward shifts to top-three status remain improbable given the margin.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Volumen
$276,388Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows March 2026 global surface air temperature anomalies ranking outside the top three hottest on record—likely fourth or lower—trailing records set during the 2023-2024 El Niño peak that boosted anomalies by 0.2-0.3°C above neutral conditions. The weak La Niña event fading into ENSO-neutral through early 2026 suppressed temperatures, consistent with February's fifth-warmest ranking and historical patterns where La Niña phases yield cooler global averages. Trader consensus at 98% for "4th or lower" reflects this observational evidence, backed by real capital. Final bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, due early May, could include minor revisions from ocean measurements, but significant upward shifts to top-three status remain improbable given the margin.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$276,388Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows March 2026 global surface air temperature anomalies ranking outside the top three hottest on record—likely fourth or lower—trailing records set during the 2023-2024 El Niño peak that boosted anomalies by 0.2-0.3°C above neutral conditions. The weak La Niña event fading into ENSO-neutral through early 2026 suppressed temperatures, consistent with February's fifth-warmest ranking and historical patterns where La Niña phases yield cooler global averages. Trader consensus at 98% for "4th or lower" reflects this observational evidence, backed by real capital. Final bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, due early May, could include minor revisions from ocean measurements, but significant upward shifts to top-three status remain improbable given the margin.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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