Preliminary analyses of global land-ocean temperature index data indicate March 2026 ranks fourth or lower among historic Marches, driving the 99.1% market-implied probability for this outcome, as traders weigh real-time satellite and station observations against record-setting precedents like March 2024 (warmest per Copernicus) and 2023-2025 El Niño peaks. Despite extreme regional heat—NOAA data showing likely U.S. record warmth and dozens of cities from California to Texas shattering March norms—cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific amid La Niña transition offset global anomalies to below top-three thresholds. Final NOAA and Copernicus bulletins, due mid-April, could revise rankings upward if late-arriving Arctic or ocean data boosts the anomaly, though model consensus and historical adjustment patterns suggest minimal shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿El 1, 2 y 3 de marzo de 2026 son los más calurosos registrados?
¿El 1, 2 y 3 de marzo de 2026 son los más calurosos registrados?
4.º o inferior 99.1%
El más caluroso <1%
3º más caluroso <1%
Segundo más caluroso <1%
$279,790 Vol.
$279,790 Vol.
10 abr 2026
El más caluroso
<1%
Segundo más caluroso
<1%
3º más caluroso
<1%
4.º o inferior
99%
4.º o inferior 99.1%
El más caluroso <1%
3º más caluroso <1%
Segundo más caluroso <1%
$279,790 Vol.
$279,790 Vol.
10 abr 2026
El más caluroso
$98,474 Vol.
<1%
Segundo más caluroso
$54,289 Vol.
<1%
3º más caluroso
$96,270 Vol.
<1%
4.º o inferior
$30,756 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses of global land-ocean temperature index data indicate March 2026 ranks fourth or lower among historic Marches, driving the 99.1% market-implied probability for this outcome, as traders weigh real-time satellite and station observations against record-setting precedents like March 2024 (warmest per Copernicus) and 2023-2025 El Niño peaks. Despite extreme regional heat—NOAA data showing likely U.S. record warmth and dozens of cities from California to Texas shattering March norms—cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific amid La Niña transition offset global anomalies to below top-three thresholds. Final NOAA and Copernicus bulletins, due mid-April, could revise rankings upward if late-arriving Arctic or ocean data boosts the anomaly, though model consensus and historical adjustment patterns suggest minimal shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Volumen
$279,790Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses of global land-ocean temperature index data indicate March 2026 ranks fourth or lower among historic Marches, driving the 99.1% market-implied probability for this outcome, as traders weigh real-time satellite and station observations against record-setting precedents like March 2024 (warmest per Copernicus) and 2023-2025 El Niño peaks. Despite extreme regional heat—NOAA data showing likely U.S. record warmth and dozens of cities from California to Texas shattering March norms—cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific amid La Niña transition offset global anomalies to below top-three thresholds. Final NOAA and Copernicus bulletins, due mid-April, could revise rankings upward if late-arriving Arctic or ocean data boosts the anomaly, though model consensus and historical adjustment patterns suggest minimal shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$279,790Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary analyses of global land-ocean temperature index data indicate March 2026 ranks fourth or lower among historic Marches, driving the 99.1% market-implied probability for this outcome, as traders weigh real-time satellite and station observations against record-setting precedents like March 2024 (warmest per Copernicus) and 2023-2025 El Niño peaks. Despite extreme regional heat—NOAA data showing likely U.S. record warmth and dozens of cities from California to Texas shattering March norms—cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific amid La Niña transition offset global anomalies to below top-three thresholds. Final NOAA and Copernicus bulletins, due mid-April, could revise rankings upward if late-arriving Arctic or ocean data boosts the anomaly, though model consensus and historical adjustment patterns suggest minimal shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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