Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and early Berkeley Earth estimates place March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.4°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, ranking it fourth or lower behind record March 2024 (1.62°C), 2023, and 2025. The fading La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific—transitioning to ENSO-neutral by early April per NOAA forecasts—suppressed global-mean temperatures despite intense regional anomalies like the record-shattering heatwave across the U.S. Southwest. This scientific consensus, reflected in traders' 98.3% implied probability for 4th or lower, awaits final NOAA confirmation around April 10; upward revisions from late ocean observations could challenge it, though historical precedents suggest minimal shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿El 1, 2 y 3 de marzo de 2026 son los más calurosos registrados?
¿El 1, 2 y 3 de marzo de 2026 son los más calurosos registrados?
4.º o inferior 98.3%
El más caluroso <1%
3º más caluroso <1%
Segundo más caluroso <1%
$276,388 Vol.
$276,388 Vol.
10 abr 2026
El más caluroso
<1%
Segundo más caluroso
<1%
3º más caluroso
<1%
4.º o inferior
98%
4.º o inferior 98.3%
El más caluroso <1%
3º más caluroso <1%
Segundo más caluroso <1%
$276,388 Vol.
$276,388 Vol.
10 abr 2026
El más caluroso
$96,972 Vol.
<1%
Segundo más caluroso
$54,289 Vol.
<1%
3º más caluroso
$95,197 Vol.
<1%
4.º o inferior
$29,929 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and early Berkeley Earth estimates place March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.4°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, ranking it fourth or lower behind record March 2024 (1.62°C), 2023, and 2025. The fading La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific—transitioning to ENSO-neutral by early April per NOAA forecasts—suppressed global-mean temperatures despite intense regional anomalies like the record-shattering heatwave across the U.S. Southwest. This scientific consensus, reflected in traders' 98.3% implied probability for 4th or lower, awaits final NOAA confirmation around April 10; upward revisions from late ocean observations could challenge it, though historical precedents suggest minimal shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Volumen
$276,388Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and early Berkeley Earth estimates place March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.4°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, ranking it fourth or lower behind record March 2024 (1.62°C), 2023, and 2025. The fading La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific—transitioning to ENSO-neutral by early April per NOAA forecasts—suppressed global-mean temperatures despite intense regional anomalies like the record-shattering heatwave across the U.S. Southwest. This scientific consensus, reflected in traders' 98.3% implied probability for 4th or lower, awaits final NOAA confirmation around April 10; upward revisions from late ocean observations could challenge it, though historical precedents suggest minimal shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$276,388Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and early Berkeley Earth estimates place March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.4°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, ranking it fourth or lower behind record March 2024 (1.62°C), 2023, and 2025. The fading La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific—transitioning to ENSO-neutral by early April per NOAA forecasts—suppressed global-mean temperatures despite intense regional anomalies like the record-shattering heatwave across the U.S. Southwest. This scientific consensus, reflected in traders' 98.3% implied probability for 4th or lower, awaits final NOAA confirmation around April 10; upward revisions from late ocean observations could challenge it, though historical precedents suggest minimal shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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