Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability against any country leaving BRICS in 2026, anchored by the bloc's expansion momentum and unity displayed at the October 2024 Kazan summit, where leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and UAE advanced payment systems and new partnerships without exit signals. No member has issued official withdrawal statements or faced domestic pressures strong enough to prompt departure, amid deepening economic ties and de-dollarization efforts countering Western sanctions. Argentina's rejection of membership post-Milei election highlights opt-outs before joining, not internal fractures, while Saudi Arabia's observer status reinforces cohesion over division. The 2025 Rio summit looms as a stability test.