Jon Bonck holds a commanding 93.8% implied probability as the Republican primary frontrunner for Texas' 38th Congressional District following his dominant 47% in the crowded March 3 first-round vote, advancing to the May 26 runoff against Shelly deZevallos amid an open seat left by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. Trader consensus reflects Bonck's momentum from President Trump's endorsement, Club for Growth support, and recent backing by Rep. Guy Reschenthaler, signaling strong grassroots and establishment conservative alignment in this Houston-area district. With no public runoff polls available, his lead aligns with historical patterns favoring top first-round finishers in Texas GOP runoffs, though deZevallos could consolidate non-Bonck voters, launch effective negative ads, or exploit any late scandal to narrow the gap before low-turnout voting concludes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJon Bonck 94.2%
Shelly deZevallos 1.4%
Jennifer Sundt 1.0%
Avery Ayers <1%
$26,316 Vol.
$26,316 Vol.
Jon Bonck
94%
Shelly deZevallos
1%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Avery Ayers
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
Jeff Yuna
<1%
Craig Goralski
<1%
Barrett McNabb
<1%
Larry Rubin
<1%
Carmen Montiel
<1%
Jon Bonck 94.2%
Shelly deZevallos 1.4%
Jennifer Sundt 1.0%
Avery Ayers <1%
$26,316 Vol.
$26,316 Vol.
Jon Bonck
94%
Shelly deZevallos
1%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Avery Ayers
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
Jeff Yuna
<1%
Craig Goralski
<1%
Barrett McNabb
<1%
Larry Rubin
<1%
Carmen Montiel
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jon Bonck holds a commanding 93.8% implied probability as the Republican primary frontrunner for Texas' 38th Congressional District following his dominant 47% in the crowded March 3 first-round vote, advancing to the May 26 runoff against Shelly deZevallos amid an open seat left by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. Trader consensus reflects Bonck's momentum from President Trump's endorsement, Club for Growth support, and recent backing by Rep. Guy Reschenthaler, signaling strong grassroots and establishment conservative alignment in this Houston-area district. With no public runoff polls available, his lead aligns with historical patterns favoring top first-round finishers in Texas GOP runoffs, though deZevallos could consolidate non-Bonck voters, launch effective negative ads, or exploit any late scandal to narrow the gap before low-turnout voting concludes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen