Trader consensus heavily favors no parliamentary election before 2027 at 86.5%, driven by the National Electoral Commission's (NEC) February 1, 2026 announcement postponing the vote from its original May 31, 2026 date by ten months to March 2027. This reflects ongoing challenges including prolonged drought hindering voter registration and logistics, localized security threats complicating polling access, and political disagreements among the three main parties—ruling Kulmiye, opposition Waddani, and Justice and Welfare (UCID)—over electoral processes. With no major updates in the past 30 days and historical patterns of delays since the last House of Representatives election in 2005, traders price low odds for party winners (UCID at 8.2%, Waddani 4%, Kulmiye 1.2%), emphasizing preparation needs under open-list proportional representation for 82 seats. Late reversals remain possible but unlikely absent new NEC statements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Parlamentswahl in Somaliland
Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Somaliland
Keine Wahl vor 2027 87%
Waddani 4.0%
Gerechtigkeit und Wohlfahrt (UCID) 1.5%
Kulmiye 1.2%
$13,462 Vol.
$13,462 Vol.
31. März 2026
Keine Wahl vor 2027
87%
Waddani
4%
Gerechtigkeit und Wohlfahrt (UCID)
13%
Kulmiye
1%
Keine Wahl vor 2027 87%
Waddani 4.0%
Gerechtigkeit und Wohlfahrt (UCID) 1.5%
Kulmiye 1.2%
$13,462 Vol.
$13,462 Vol.
31. März 2026
Keine Wahl vor 2027
$6,095 Vol.
87%
Waddani
$1,796 Vol.
4%
Gerechtigkeit und Wohlfahrt (UCID)
$3,672 Vol.
13%
Kulmiye
$1,899 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Trader consensus heavily favors no parliamentary election before 2027 at 86.5%, driven by the National Electoral Commission's (NEC) February 1, 2026 announcement postponing the vote from its original May 31, 2026 date by ten months to March 2027. This reflects ongoing challenges including prolonged drought hindering voter registration and logistics, localized security threats complicating polling access, and political disagreements among the three main parties—ruling Kulmiye, opposition Waddani, and Justice and Welfare (UCID)—over electoral processes. With no major updates in the past 30 days and historical patterns of delays since the last House of Representatives election in 2005, traders price low odds for party winners (UCID at 8.2%, Waddani 4%, Kulmiye 1.2%), emphasizing preparation needs under open-list proportional representation for 82 seats. Late reversals remain possible but unlikely absent new NEC statements.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
Volumen
$13,462Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Trader consensus heavily favors no parliamentary election before 2027 at 86.5%, driven by the National Electoral Commission's (NEC) February 1, 2026 announcement postponing the vote from its original May 31, 2026 date by ten months to March 2027. This reflects ongoing challenges including prolonged drought hindering voter registration and logistics, localized security threats complicating polling access, and political disagreements among the three main parties—ruling Kulmiye, opposition Waddani, and Justice and Welfare (UCID)—over electoral processes. With no major updates in the past 30 days and historical patterns of delays since the last House of Representatives election in 2005, traders price low odds for party winners (UCID at 8.2%, Waddani 4%, Kulmiye 1.2%), emphasizing preparation needs under open-list proportional representation for 82 seats. Late reversals remain possible but unlikely absent new NEC statements.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Volumen
$13,462Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no parliamentary election before 2027 at 86.5%, driven by the National Electoral Commission's (NEC) February 1, 2026 announcement postponing the vote from its original May 31, 2026 date by ten months to March 2027. This reflects ongoing challenges including prolonged drought hindering voter registration and logistics, localized security threats complicating polling access, and political disagreements among the three main parties—ruling Kulmiye, opposition Waddani, and Justice and Welfare (UCID)—over electoral processes. With no major updates in the past 30 days and historical patterns of delays since the last House of Representatives election in 2005, traders price low odds for party winners (UCID at 8.2%, Waddani 4%, Kulmiye 1.2%), emphasizing preparation needs under open-list proportional representation for 82 seats. Late reversals remain possible but unlikely absent new NEC statements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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