JD Vance leads trader consensus at 20% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, buoyed by his vice presidential role in the incoming Trump administration and perceived continuity with 2024 GOP momentum, while Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17.8% amid Democratic searches for a post-Harris standard-bearer. The tight race among top contenders like Marco Rubio reflects an early, fragmented field with no primaries underway, high uncertainty from economic policy execution, Supreme Court impacts, and international tensions under Trump 2.0. Separation could emerge from 2026 midterm outcomes, Vance's VP visibility, Newsom's national profile-building, or scandals shifting party nominations by mid-decade.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl 2028
Gewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl 2028
JD Vance 20.0%
Gavin Newsom 17.8%
Marco Rubio 12.2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$434,764,771 Vol.
$434,764,771 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Donald Trump
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Pete Buttigieg
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Gruppenelementtitel: Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Tim Walz
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 20.0%
Gavin Newsom 17.8%
Marco Rubio 12.2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$434,764,771 Vol.
$434,764,771 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Donald Trump
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Pete Buttigieg
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Gruppenelementtitel: Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Tim Walz
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads trader consensus at 20% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, buoyed by his vice presidential role in the incoming Trump administration and perceived continuity with 2024 GOP momentum, while Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17.8% amid Democratic searches for a post-Harris standard-bearer. The tight race among top contenders like Marco Rubio reflects an early, fragmented field with no primaries underway, high uncertainty from economic policy execution, Supreme Court impacts, and international tensions under Trump 2.0. Separation could emerge from 2026 midterm outcomes, Vance's VP visibility, Newsom's national profile-building, or scandals shifting party nominations by mid-decade.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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