Trader consensus on Peru's April 12 presidential election first-round turnout centers on 70-75% at 57% implied probability, aligning closely with the 2021 first-round figure of 73.1% amid a historical decline from 81-83% in prior cycles. This positioning reflects deep voter disillusionment after a decade of political instability, corruption scandals, and record 3,675 murders in 2025, with crime topping concerns in recent Ipsos surveys. A record 37 candidates have fragmented the field—no frontrunner exceeds 17% in March polls—fostering apathy despite compulsory voting for ages 18-70, high undecided rates (14-19%), and elevated blank vote intentions (29-35% in cast-vote simulations). The youth bloc (25% of 27.3 million registered voters) adds uncertainty, while final debates this week could spur mobilization before resolution based on official National Office of Electoral Processes data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPeru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Wahlbeteiligung
Peru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Wahlbeteiligung
70–75 % 57%
75-80 % 23%
80-85 % 11%
> 85 % 4.7%
NEU
NEU
12. Apr. 2026
< 70 %
3%
70–75 %
57%
75-80 %
23%
80-85 %
11%
> 85 %
5%
70–75 % 57%
75-80 % 23%
80-85 % 11%
> 85 % 4.7%
NEU
NEU
12. Apr. 2026
< 70 %
$644 Vol.
3%
70–75 %
$483 Vol.
57%
75-80 %
$464 Vol.
23%
80-85 %
$508 Vol.
11%
> 85 %
$755 Vol.
5%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's April 12 presidential election first-round turnout centers on 70-75% at 57% implied probability, aligning closely with the 2021 first-round figure of 73.1% amid a historical decline from 81-83% in prior cycles. This positioning reflects deep voter disillusionment after a decade of political instability, corruption scandals, and record 3,675 murders in 2025, with crime topping concerns in recent Ipsos surveys. A record 37 candidates have fragmented the field—no frontrunner exceeds 17% in March polls—fostering apathy despite compulsory voting for ages 18-70, high undecided rates (14-19%), and elevated blank vote intentions (29-35% in cast-vote simulations). The youth bloc (25% of 27.3 million registered voters) adds uncertainty, while final debates this week could spur mobilization before resolution based on official National Office of Electoral Processes data.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Volumen
$2,854Enddatum
12. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's April 12 presidential election first-round turnout centers on 70-75% at 57% implied probability, aligning closely with the 2021 first-round figure of 73.1% amid a historical decline from 81-83% in prior cycles. This positioning reflects deep voter disillusionment after a decade of political instability, corruption scandals, and record 3,675 murders in 2025, with crime topping concerns in recent Ipsos surveys. A record 37 candidates have fragmented the field—no frontrunner exceeds 17% in March polls—fostering apathy despite compulsory voting for ages 18-70, high undecided rates (14-19%), and elevated blank vote intentions (29-35% in cast-vote simulations). The youth bloc (25% of 27.3 million registered voters) adds uncertainty, while final debates this week could spur mobilization before resolution based on official National Office of Electoral Processes data.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volumen
$2,854Enddatum
12. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Peru's April 12 presidential election first-round turnout centers on 70-75% at 57% implied probability, aligning closely with the 2021 first-round figure of 73.1% amid a historical decline from 81-83% in prior cycles. This positioning reflects deep voter disillusionment after a decade of political instability, corruption scandals, and record 3,675 murders in 2025, with crime topping concerns in recent Ipsos surveys. A record 37 candidates have fragmented the field—no frontrunner exceeds 17% in March polls—fostering apathy despite compulsory voting for ages 18-70, high undecided rates (14-19%), and elevated blank vote intentions (29-35% in cast-vote simulations). The youth bloc (25% of 27.3 million registered voters) adds uncertainty, while final debates this week could spur mobilization before resolution based on official National Office of Electoral Processes data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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