Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 27, aligning closely with recent daily throughput figures—such as 2.72M on March 26 and 2.77M on March 20—during peak spring break demand. This positioning reflects sustained air travel recovery, evidenced by averages of 2.5-2.8M screenings over the past two weeks, but capped by a partial government shutdown exacerbating TSA staffing shortages, with over 450 officer resignations, 11-50% callout rates, and multi-hour security lines prompting flight disruptions and shifts to private aviation. Lower odds for higher bins (e.g., 14.9% for 3.0M-3.2M) signal trader caution amid these constraints, with official March 27 data release anticipated Monday.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2.6M-2.8M 92%
3.0M-3.2M 14.9%
2.8M-3.0M 9%
<2.6M 4.0%
$23,112 Vol.
$23,112 Vol.
<2.6M
4%
2.6M-2.8M
80%
2.8M-3.0M
9%
3.0M-3.2M
15%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
2.6M-2.8M 92%
3.0M-3.2M 14.9%
2.8M-3.0M 9%
<2.6M 4.0%
$23,112 Vol.
$23,112 Vol.
<2.6M
4%
2.6M-2.8M
80%
2.8M-3.0M
9%
3.0M-3.2M
15%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 27, aligning closely with recent daily throughput figures—such as 2.72M on March 26 and 2.77M on March 20—during peak spring break demand. This positioning reflects sustained air travel recovery, evidenced by averages of 2.5-2.8M screenings over the past two weeks, but capped by a partial government shutdown exacerbating TSA staffing shortages, with over 450 officer resignations, 11-50% callout rates, and multi-hour security lines prompting flight disruptions and shifts to private aviation. Lower odds for higher bins (e.g., 14.9% for 3.0M-3.2M) signal trader caution amid these constraints, with official March 27 data release anticipated Monday.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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