Market icon

Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?

Market icon

Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 59%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 9%

Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien 7.6%

Starmer – UK Premierminister 4.0%

Polymarket

$3,571,342 Vol.

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 59%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 9%

Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien 7.6%

Starmer – UK Premierminister 4.0%

Polymarket

$3,571,342 Vol.

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident

$36,360 Vol.

59%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba

$24,823 Vol.

9%

Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien

$25,328 Vol.

8%

Starmer – UK Premierminister

$563,870 Vol.

4%

Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister

$1,016,648 Vol.

3%

Takaichi - Japans Premierministerin

$356,936 Vol.

2%

Putin - Präsident Russlands

$359,514 Vol.

2%

Trump - Präsident der USA

$228,281 Vol.

2%

Abbas – Präsident von Palästina

$90,359 Vol.

2%

Keiner vor 2027

$22,167 Vol.

1%

Selenskyj - Präsident der Ukraine

$20,232 Vol.

1%

Macron - Präsident Frankreichs

$79,930 Vol.

1%

Xi – Generalsekretär der KPCh

$48,766 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Frankreichs Premierminister

$73,293 Vol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Präsidentin von Mexiko

$71,293 Vol.

1%

Sánchez – Spanischer Premierminister

$23,681 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Präsident von Brasilien

$76,925 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Präsident der Türkei

$82,083 Vol.

1%

Milei - Präsident von Argentinien

$43,570 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuelas amtierende Präsidentin

$30,307 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Präsident von Syrien

$46,644 Vol.

1%

Albanese - Australiens Premierminister

$65,032 Vol.

<1%

Newsom – Gouverneur von Kalifornien

$121,183 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Deutscher Bundeskanzler

$34,219 Vol.

<1%

Kim – Oberster Führer von Nordkorea

$29,895 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán out of power first at 58.5%, driven by polls showing opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, widening its lead over Fidesz ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—one week away—with youth turnout and anti-Orbán rallies gaining momentum after 16 years of incumbency. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 9%, amid deepening economic crisis, energy blackouts, and family criticism signaling potential leadership transition pressures. Colombia's Gustavo Petro at 7.4% reflects U.S. probes into alleged drug ties and historically low approval, despite his May 31 term limit, as impeachment risks linger before 2027. These near-term catalysts dominate over distant fixed terms for others like Macron or Xi.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,571,342
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán out of power first at 58.5%, driven by polls showing opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, widening its lead over Fidesz ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—one week away—with youth turnout and anti-Orbán rallies gaining momentum after 16 years of incumbency. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 9%, amid deepening economic crisis, energy blackouts, and family criticism signaling potential leadership transition pressures. Colombia's Gustavo Petro at 7.4% reflects U.S. probes into alleged drug ties and historically low approval, despite his May 31 term limit, as impeachment risks linger before 2027. These near-term catalysts dominate over distant fixed terms for others like Macron or Xi.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,571,342
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 25 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident" mit 59%, gefolgt von „Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba" mit 9%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 59¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 59% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $3.6 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 3, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 25 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ist „Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident" mit 59%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 59% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba" mit 9%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.