Market icon

Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?

Market icon

Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 64%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 14%

Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister 3.4%

Starmer – UK Premierminister 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,502,330 Vol.

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 64%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 14%

Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister 3.4%

Starmer – UK Premierminister 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,502,330 Vol.

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident

$32,964 Vol.

64%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba

$22,440 Vol.

14%

Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister

$1,015,313 Vol.

3%

Starmer – UK Premierminister

$562,887 Vol.

3%

Takaichi - Japans Premierministerin

$356,416 Vol.

2%

Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien

$16,938 Vol.

2%

Trump - Präsident der USA

$217,234 Vol.

2%

Putin - Präsident Russlands

$359,068 Vol.

2%

Keiner vor 2027

$21,656 Vol.

2%

Selenskyj - Präsident der Ukraine

$19,139 Vol.

1%

Macron - Präsident Frankreichs

$74,774 Vol.

1%

Abbas – Präsident von Palästina

$88,411 Vol.

1%

Xi – Generalsekretär der KPCh

$44,736 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Frankreichs Premierminister

$71,607 Vol.

1%

Sánchez – Spanischer Premierminister

$23,321 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Präsident von Brasilien

$74,521 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Präsident von Syrien

$45,989 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuelas amtierende Präsidentin

$28,106 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Präsident der Türkei

$79,541 Vol.

<1%

Kim – Oberster Führer von Nordkorea

$27,748 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australiens Premierminister

$61,998 Vol.

<1%

Newsom – Gouverneur von Kalifornien

$118,203 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Präsident von Argentinien

$40,491 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Deutscher Bundeskanzler

$31,616 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Präsidentin von Mexiko

$67,213 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 64%, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza Party ahead of parliamentary elections on April 12. Massive anti-government protests erupted over the weekend, fueled by youth mobilization and corruption allegations, eroding Orbán's 16-year dominance amid economic discontent and EU tensions. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 14%, reflecting ongoing blackouts, fuel shortages from severed Venezuelan oil supplies, mass exodus, and his recent acknowledgment of preliminary U.S. negotiations under heightened Trump administration pressure. Lower odds for Netanyahu, Starmer, and others stem from no comparable near-term elections or crises, with "None" at just 1.7% signaling expectations of imminent change.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,502,330
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 64%, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza Party ahead of parliamentary elections on April 12. Massive anti-government protests erupted over the weekend, fueled by youth mobilization and corruption allegations, eroding Orbán's 16-year dominance amid economic discontent and EU tensions. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 14%, reflecting ongoing blackouts, fuel shortages from severed Venezuelan oil supplies, mass exodus, and his recent acknowledgment of preliminary U.S. negotiations under heightened Trump administration pressure. Lower odds for Netanyahu, Starmer, and others stem from no comparable near-term elections or crises, with "None" at just 1.7% signaling expectations of imminent change.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,502,330
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 25 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident" mit 64%, gefolgt von „Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba" mit 14%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 64¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 64% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $3.5 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 3, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 25 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ist „Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident" mit 64%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 64% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba" mit 14%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.