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Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Market icon

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$40,061,278 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$40,061,278 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties.

A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volumen
$40,061,278
Enddatum
Dec 31, 2024
Markt eröffnet
Sep 24, 2024, 12:06 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties.

A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volumen
$40,061,278
Enddatum
Dec 31, 2024
Markt eröffnet
Sep 24, 2024, 12:06 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 100% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 100¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 100%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $40.1 million generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 24, 2024 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?" liegt bei 100% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.