Traders' near-unanimous consensus on 150+ US tornadoes in March stems from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts already surpassing 170 confirmed events as of late-month, shattering the historical monthly average of around 80. This surge follows repeated severe weather outbreaks fueled by exceptional wind shear, CAPE instability, and Gulf moisture clashes with Arctic fronts, as documented in SPC outlooks. Such conditions echoed peak spring patterns unusually early. Resolution hinges on final NOAA verification post-radar surveys, but challenges like widespread tornado downgrades to weaker vortices are improbable given extensive ground truthing and video evidence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWie viele Tornados gab es im März in den USA?
Wie viele Tornados gab es im März in den USA?
150+ 98.4%
130–149 <1%
<70 <1%
100–129 <1%
$134,782 Vol.
$134,782 Vol.
<70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
1%
150+
98%
150+ 98.4%
130–149 <1%
<70 <1%
100–129 <1%
$134,782 Vol.
$134,782 Vol.
<70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
1%
150+
98%
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-unanimous consensus on 150+ US tornadoes in March stems from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts already surpassing 170 confirmed events as of late-month, shattering the historical monthly average of around 80. This surge follows repeated severe weather outbreaks fueled by exceptional wind shear, CAPE instability, and Gulf moisture clashes with Arctic fronts, as documented in SPC outlooks. Such conditions echoed peak spring patterns unusually early. Resolution hinges on final NOAA verification post-radar surveys, but challenges like widespread tornado downgrades to weaker vortices are improbable given extensive ground truthing and video evidence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen