Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target at 3.5%-3.75% through the April 28-29 and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, following the March 18 decision to pause for the second straight gathering. This positioning reflects the Fed's updated dot plot signaling just one rate cut for all of 2026 amid steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and Chair Powell's press conference emphasis on slower-than-expected inflation progress, despite a weaker-than-forecast February nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000 jobs. Elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions further bolster pause expectations, with the next key catalyst being March CPI data due April 10 ahead of April policy deliberations. Secondary outcomes like a June cut (10.5%) hinge on softer upcoming labor and inflation prints to shift the hawkish stance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Senkung 10%
Sonstiges 9.8%
Pause–Senkung–Pause <1%
$711,911 Vol.
$711,911 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
78%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
10%
Sonstiges
10%
Pause–Senkung–Pause
1%
Pausieren–Senken–Senken
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Senkung 10%
Sonstiges 9.8%
Pause–Senkung–Pause <1%
$711,911 Vol.
$711,911 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$18,492 Vol.
78%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
$10,005 Vol.
10%
Sonstiges
$209,041 Vol.
10%
Pause–Senkung–Pause
$129,282 Vol.
1%
Pausieren–Senken–Senken
$345,090 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target at 3.5%-3.75% through the April 28-29 and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, following the March 18 decision to pause for the second straight gathering. This positioning reflects the Fed's updated dot plot signaling just one rate cut for all of 2026 amid steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and Chair Powell's press conference emphasis on slower-than-expected inflation progress, despite a weaker-than-forecast February nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000 jobs. Elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions further bolster pause expectations, with the next key catalyst being March CPI data due April 10 ahead of April policy deliberations. Secondary outcomes like a June cut (10.5%) hinge on softer upcoming labor and inflation prints to shift the hawkish stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$711,911Enddatum
Jun 17, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target at 3.5%-3.75% through the April 28-29 and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, following the March 18 decision to pause for the second straight gathering. This positioning reflects the Fed's updated dot plot signaling just one rate cut for all of 2026 amid steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and Chair Powell's press conference emphasis on slower-than-expected inflation progress, despite a weaker-than-forecast February nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000 jobs. Elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions further bolster pause expectations, with the next key catalyst being March CPI data due April 10 ahead of April policy deliberations. Secondary outcomes like a June cut (10.5%) hinge on softer upcoming labor and inflation prints to shift the hawkish stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$711,911Enddatum
Jun 17, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target at 3.5%-3.75% through the April 28-29 and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, following the March 18 decision to pause for the second straight gathering. This positioning reflects the Fed's updated dot plot signaling just one rate cut for all of 2026 amid steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and Chair Powell's press conference emphasis on slower-than-expected inflation progress, despite a weaker-than-forecast February nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000 jobs. Elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions further bolster pause expectations, with the next key catalyst being March CPI data due April 10 ahead of April policy deliberations. Secondary outcomes like a June cut (10.5%) hinge on softer upcoming labor and inflation prints to shift the hawkish stance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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