President-elect Donald Trump's recent public statements, including a December interview affirming no plans to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026, anchor trader consensus at 99.5% against an attempt by March 31. Statutory protections limit presidential firings to "for cause," a high bar upheld by historical precedent and likely judicial review, deterring action amid focus on economic transition priorities like nominations and executive orders. No developments in the past week signal escalation, with transition officials emphasizing Fed independence. Late-breaking scenarios like severe economic downturns or policy clashes could shift odds, though traders see minimal risk before inauguration.