Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, with the federal funds rate holding steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. This positioning stems from the March 18 FOMC's unanimous decision to maintain rates amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market evidenced by February's -92,000 nonfarm payrolls decline. Fed Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks reinforced a "wait-and-see" posture, citing well-anchored long-term inflation expectations despite energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift sentiment toward modest cut scenarios priced below 12%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Cut–Pause–Pause 2.7%
NEU
NEU
29. Juli 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
3%
Cut–Pause–Cut
2%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Cut–Pause–Pause 2.7%
NEU
NEU
29. Juli 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$322 Vol.
3%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$163 Vol.
2%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$164 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$151 Vol.
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$539 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$183 Vol.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$170 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$195 Vol.
2%
Other
$196 Vol.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, with the federal funds rate holding steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. This positioning stems from the March 18 FOMC's unanimous decision to maintain rates amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market evidenced by February's -92,000 nonfarm payrolls decline. Fed Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks reinforced a "wait-and-see" posture, citing well-anchored long-term inflation expectations despite energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift sentiment toward modest cut scenarios priced below 12%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,083Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, with the federal funds rate holding steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. This positioning stems from the March 18 FOMC's unanimous decision to maintain rates amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market evidenced by February's -92,000 nonfarm payrolls decline. Fed Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks reinforced a "wait-and-see" posture, citing well-anchored long-term inflation expectations despite energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift sentiment toward modest cut scenarios priced below 12%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$2,083Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, with the federal funds rate holding steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. This positioning stems from the March 18 FOMC's unanimous decision to maintain rates amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market evidenced by February's -92,000 nonfarm payrolls decline. Fed Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks reinforced a "wait-and-see" posture, citing well-anchored long-term inflation expectations despite energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift sentiment toward modest cut scenarios priced below 12%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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