Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve funds rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding economist expectations—while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, underscoring a resilient labor market on firm footing per Chair Powell's March 18 remarks. This aligns with the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections forecasting just one 25 basis-point cut later in 2026 amid sticky core PCE inflation above the 2% target and upside risks from oil shocks tied to the Iran conflict. Consensus holds as April 28-29 FOMC nears with near-certainty of steady 3.50%-3.75% policy, but hotter-than-expected April CPI or sharper labor softening could challenge positioning toward modest cuts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im Juni?
Fed-Entscheidung im Juni?
Keine Änderung 91%
25 Basispunkte Senkung 6%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.4%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$5,415,785 Vol.
$5,415,785 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
25 Basispunkte Senkung
6%
Keine Änderung
91%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung 91%
25 Basispunkte Senkung 6%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.4%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$5,415,785 Vol.
$5,415,785 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$1,581,918 Vol.
1%
25 Basispunkte Senkung
$738,996 Vol.
6%
Keine Änderung
$1,121,751 Vol.
91%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$1,080,638 Vol.
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$892,482 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve funds rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding economist expectations—while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, underscoring a resilient labor market on firm footing per Chair Powell's March 18 remarks. This aligns with the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections forecasting just one 25 basis-point cut later in 2026 amid sticky core PCE inflation above the 2% target and upside risks from oil shocks tied to the Iran conflict. Consensus holds as April 28-29 FOMC nears with near-certainty of steady 3.50%-3.75% policy, but hotter-than-expected April CPI or sharper labor softening could challenge positioning toward modest cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$5,415,785Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve funds rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding economist expectations—while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, underscoring a resilient labor market on firm footing per Chair Powell's March 18 remarks. This aligns with the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections forecasting just one 25 basis-point cut later in 2026 amid sticky core PCE inflation above the 2% target and upside risks from oil shocks tied to the Iran conflict. Consensus holds as April 28-29 FOMC nears with near-certainty of steady 3.50%-3.75% policy, but hotter-than-expected April CPI or sharper labor softening could challenge positioning toward modest cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,415,785Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve funds rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding economist expectations—while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, underscoring a resilient labor market on firm footing per Chair Powell's March 18 remarks. This aligns with the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections forecasting just one 25 basis-point cut later in 2026 amid sticky core PCE inflation above the 2% target and upside risks from oil shocks tied to the Iran conflict. Consensus holds as April 28-29 FOMC nears with near-certainty of steady 3.50%-3.75% policy, but hotter-than-expected April CPI or sharper labor softening could challenge positioning toward modest cuts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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