Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces no scheduled election before May 2028 and his Justice and Development Party, together with its Nationalist Movement Party ally, holds a parliamentary majority that supports extending his candidacy through an early vote mechanism permitted under Article 116 of the constitution. Recent statements from presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek confirm plans for a 2028 contest, most likely moved to April, explicitly framed as Erdoğan’s final term. The opposition remains fragmented following legal actions against leading figures, reducing near-term pressure for resignation or removal. Traders therefore assign only a 4.5 percent chance that Erdoğan leaves office before the end of 2026. The principal risks capable of altering this outlook remain a sudden health crisis, an unforeseen internal coalition fracture, or a parliamentary realignment sufficient to force an earlier transition.