**President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s position remains stable through at least late 2026, with ruling alliance statements pointing to a 2028 candidacy.** In September 2026, chief adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek publicly confirmed plans for Erdoğan to seek another term, likely via an April 16, 2028, vote enabled by a parliamentary decision under Article 116 of the constitution. This requires 360 of 600 seats—beyond the AKP-MHP bloc’s 326—and would bypass standard two-term limits by treating the early election as a renewal during his current term. MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli reinforced this path in early October. No major health, resignation, or removal signals have emerged, while cabinet adjustments and institutional moves align with continuity rather than transition. Opposition calls for earlier votes lack the parliamentary leverage to force change before the scheduled window, keeping trader consensus on near-term exit probabilities low absent unexpected shocks.