Market icon
政治·文化

美国会通过……确认外星人存在吗？

Market icon
政治·文化

美国会通过……确认外星人存在吗？

$19,393,625 交易量

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$19,393,625 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$325,177 交易量

1%

12月31日

$19,068,448 交易量

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$19,393,625
结束日期
Dec 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trader consensus heavily favors "No" with implied probabilities under 10%, driven by repeated official U.S. government denials, including the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) report in March 2024 finding zero evidence of extraterrestrial technology or beings amid hundreds of UAP cases. Despite pop culture fuel from 2023 congressional hearings featuring whistleblower David Grusch's unverified claims of "non-human biologics," subsequent investigations yielded no substantiation, tempering hype. Public fascination persists via viral documentaries and podcasts, but bureaucratic opacity and historical precedent—like Project Blue Book's debunkings—keep odds grounded. Watch for potential fall hearings, though experts see slim chances of paradigm-shifting disclosure by year-end.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美国会通过……确认外星人存在吗？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"12月31日"，概率为 17%，其次是"3月31日"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 17¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 17%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"美国会通过……确认外星人存在吗？"已产生 $19.4 million 的总交易量（自Nov 25, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美国会通过……确认外星人存在吗？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美国会通过……确认外星人存在吗？"的当前领先者是"12月31日"，概率为 17%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 17%。紧随其后的结果是"3月31日"，概率为 1%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美国会通过……确认外星人存在吗？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。