Trader consensus reflects a 69% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, driven by Tehran's pattern of restraint despite provocations. Recent IAEA reports in November detailed Iran's stockpile of 182kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but no formal withdrawal steps followed, even after Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian sites and Iran's retaliatory missile launches. Parliament has approved conditional exit bills tied to attacks or sanctions, yet Supreme Leader Khamenei's calculus favors NPT ambiguity for diplomatic leverage amid stalled JCPOA revival talks, U.S. policy uncertainty under incoming Trump administration, and potential new IAEA censures. Escalation risks persist, but historical non-withdrawal post-Soleimani killing bolsters trader confidence in continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$83,446 交易量
$83,446 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$83,446 交易量
$83,446 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects a 69% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, driven by Tehran's pattern of restraint despite provocations. Recent IAEA reports in November detailed Iran's stockpile of 182kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but no formal withdrawal steps followed, even after Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian sites and Iran's retaliatory missile launches. Parliament has approved conditional exit bills tied to attacks or sanctions, yet Supreme Leader Khamenei's calculus favors NPT ambiguity for diplomatic leverage amid stalled JCPOA revival talks, U.S. policy uncertainty under incoming Trump administration, and potential new IAEA censures. Escalation risks persist, but historical non-withdrawal post-Soleimani killing bolsters trader confidence in continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$83,446结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects a 69% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, driven by Tehran's pattern of restraint despite provocations. Recent IAEA reports in November detailed Iran's stockpile of 182kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but no formal withdrawal steps followed, even after Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian sites and Iran's retaliatory missile launches. Parliament has approved conditional exit bills tied to attacks or sanctions, yet Supreme Leader Khamenei's calculus favors NPT ambiguity for diplomatic leverage amid stalled JCPOA revival talks, U.S. policy uncertainty under incoming Trump administration, and potential new IAEA censures. Escalation risks persist, but historical non-withdrawal post-Soleimani killing bolsters trader confidence in continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$83,446结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 69% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, driven by Tehran's pattern of restraint despite provocations. Recent IAEA reports in November detailed Iran's stockpile of 182kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but no formal withdrawal steps followed, even after Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian sites and Iran's retaliatory missile launches. Parliament has approved conditional exit bills tied to attacks or sanctions, yet Supreme Leader Khamenei's calculus favors NPT ambiguity for diplomatic leverage amid stalled JCPOA revival talks, U.S. policy uncertainty under incoming Trump administration, and potential new IAEA censures. Escalation risks persist, but historical non-withdrawal post-Soleimani killing bolsters trader confidence in continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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