US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 severely damaged enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while subsequent military actions extended the disruption. IAEA inspectors have had no access to key facilities since mid-2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium unverified, and the agency referred Iran to the UN Security Council in September 2026 over safeguards noncompliance. US intelligence assessments place breakout time to a weapon at about one year if Iran makes the decision, with no confirmed weaponization activities or assembly. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges and construction monitoring at sites like Pickaxe Mountain sustain trader consensus that acquisition before 2027 remains unlikely, though rapid covert reconstitution of remaining material or accelerated rebuilding could still alter timelines.