Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025 and March 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities, centrifuge cascades, and weapons-related sites such as Minzadehei and Taleghan 2, while eliminating key scientists and limiting access to stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. Satellite imagery confirms ongoing reconstruction and vehicle activity at affected locations through early October 2026, yet the scale of prior destruction, combined with IAEA exclusion from verification since mid-2025, leaves the program facing substantial technical and material hurdles to weaponization. IAEA assessments note no current structured weapons effort, and U.S.-Iran diplomatic channels plus threats of renewed action reinforce containment. Trader consensus on no acquisition before 2027 reflects these accumulated setbacks, though accelerated secret rebuilding or a sudden NPT withdrawal could still shift timelines if undetected.