Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, including attacks near Bushehr on April 4 and prior damage to Natanz and other enrichment sites from 2025 operations, have severely disrupted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, as confirmed in IAEA updates on April 6, prompting trader consensus at 88.5% against Iran developing a nuclear weapon before 2027. Iran's April 8 indication to transfer its 60% highly enriched uranium stockpile—enough for roughly 10 bombs if further processed—during fragile Islamabad talks underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals, though a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan shows signs of cracking. Limited IAEA access hinders verification, but no weaponization evidence persists amid 1-3 month breakout estimates for fissile material alone, with full device timelines longer and vulnerable to renewed strikes or sanctions.