US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA access and leaving stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium buried under rubble. US intelligence assessments, including March 2026 testimony from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since the operations. Ongoing diplomatic talks have centered on demands for facility dismantlement and material transfer, with Iranian officials stating no intent to recover the stockpile. These developments have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 91.8% implied probability against acquisition of a nuclear weapon before 2027, though reconstruction efforts at secondary sites and any shift in verification access could alter timelines.