The ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with strikes on nuclear sites, missile production facilities, and leadership targets, dominates trader assessments now in its fifth week as of late March. Iranian retaliation has included attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base and Houthi missile launches toward Israel, prompting heightened US force deployments amid Tehran's warnings of fiery resistance to any ground invasion. Diplomatic signals emerged March 29 with Pakistan offering to host US-Iran talks after consultations involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal. No other nations have joined direct military action, though UK bases support operations; escalation risks or negotiation breakthroughs could spur involvement before April 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$452,843 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
30%
UAE
23%
Bahrain
8%
Kuwait
7%
Jordan
6%
Qatar
6%
Any E.U. Country
5%
France
5%
Turkey
4%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$452,843 交易量
Saudi Arabia
$65,609 交易量
30%
UAE
$36,518 交易量
23%
Bahrain
$724 交易量
8%
Kuwait
$1,185 交易量
7%
Jordan
$915 交易量
6%
Qatar
$426 交易量
6%
Any E.U. Country
$5,054 交易量
5%
France
$148,440 交易量
5%
Turkey
$14,950 交易量
4%
Oman
$319 交易量
4%
UK
$103,146 交易量
3%
Germany
$75,558 交易量
3%
Canada
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with strikes on nuclear sites, missile production facilities, and leadership targets, dominates trader assessments now in its fifth week as of late March. Iranian retaliation has included attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base and Houthi missile launches toward Israel, prompting heightened US force deployments amid Tehran's warnings of fiery resistance to any ground invasion. Diplomatic signals emerged March 29 with Pakistan offering to host US-Iran talks after consultations involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal. No other nations have joined direct military action, though UK bases support operations; escalation risks or negotiation breakthroughs could spur involvement before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
交易量
$452,843结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with strikes on nuclear sites, missile production facilities, and leadership targets, dominates trader assessments now in its fifth week as of late March. Iranian retaliation has included attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base and Houthi missile launches toward Israel, prompting heightened US force deployments amid Tehran's warnings of fiery resistance to any ground invasion. Diplomatic signals emerged March 29 with Pakistan offering to host US-Iran talks after consultations involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal. No other nations have joined direct military action, though UK bases support operations; escalation risks or negotiation breakthroughs could spur involvement before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$452,843结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with strikes on nuclear sites, missile production facilities, and leadership targets, dominates trader assessments now in its fifth week as of late March. Iranian retaliation has included attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base and Houthi missile launches toward Israel, prompting heightened US force deployments amid Tehran's warnings of fiery resistance to any ground invasion. Diplomatic signals emerged March 29 with Pakistan offering to host US-Iran talks after consultations involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal. No other nations have joined direct military action, though UK bases support operations; escalation risks or negotiation breakthroughs could spur involvement before April 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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