Polymarket traders price a 33.5% implied probability of UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 0-1% at 28.5%, reflecting fragile momentum confirmed by Office for National Statistics data on March 31 showing Q4 2025 expansion at just 0.1% and full-year 2025 growth revised to 1.4%. OECD's sharp downgrade to 0.7%—the largest among majors—stems from Iran conflict-driven energy price surges fueling inflation and curbing activity, with KPMG and others aligning around sub-1% consensus amid subdued investment and productivity. Closely contested low-growth buckets hinge on Bank of England rate cuts offsetting shocks versus persistent headwinds; watch April 16 monthly GDP and upcoming MPC for resolution catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于<0 34%
1-2% 11%
3-4% 10.0%
5%及以上 10%
最新
最新
2027-02-12
<0
34%
0-1%
30%
1-2%
21%
2-3%
6%
3-4%
10%
4-5%
9%
5%及以上
10%
<0 34%
1-2% 11%
3-4% 10.0%
5%及以上 10%
最新
最新
2027-02-12
<0
$229 交易量
34%
0-1%
$248 交易量
30%
1-2%
$205 交易量
21%
2-3%
$206 交易量
6%
3-4%
$193 交易量
10%
4-5%
$283 交易量
9%
5%及以上
$230 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 33.5% implied probability of UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 0-1% at 28.5%, reflecting fragile momentum confirmed by Office for National Statistics data on March 31 showing Q4 2025 expansion at just 0.1% and full-year 2025 growth revised to 1.4%. OECD's sharp downgrade to 0.7%—the largest among majors—stems from Iran conflict-driven energy price surges fueling inflation and curbing activity, with KPMG and others aligning around sub-1% consensus amid subdued investment and productivity. Closely contested low-growth buckets hinge on Bank of England rate cuts offsetting shocks versus persistent headwinds; watch April 16 monthly GDP and upcoming MPC for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
交易量
$1,594结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 33.5% implied probability of UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 0-1% at 28.5%, reflecting fragile momentum confirmed by Office for National Statistics data on March 31 showing Q4 2025 expansion at just 0.1% and full-year 2025 growth revised to 1.4%. OECD's sharp downgrade to 0.7%—the largest among majors—stems from Iran conflict-driven energy price surges fueling inflation and curbing activity, with KPMG and others aligning around sub-1% consensus amid subdued investment and productivity. Closely contested low-growth buckets hinge on Bank of England rate cuts offsetting shocks versus persistent headwinds; watch April 16 monthly GDP and upcoming MPC for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,594结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 33.5% implied probability of UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 0-1% at 28.5%, reflecting fragile momentum confirmed by Office for National Statistics data on March 31 showing Q4 2025 expansion at just 0.1% and full-year 2025 growth revised to 1.4%. OECD's sharp downgrade to 0.7%—the largest among majors—stems from Iran conflict-driven energy price surges fueling inflation and curbing activity, with KPMG and others aligning around sub-1% consensus amid subdued investment and productivity. Closely contested low-growth buckets hinge on Bank of England rate cuts offsetting shocks versus persistent headwinds; watch April 16 monthly GDP and upcoming MPC for resolution catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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