Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting elevated nowcasting models like the Cleveland Fed's 3.25% headline estimate amid sticky core pressures and recent base effects from last year's lower readings. February's CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, matching January, but surging retail sales and potential war-related commodity shocks have lifted forecasts toward 3.2–3.4%, diverging from earlier sub-3% expectations. This strong positioning underscores trader confidence in persistent inflation dynamics pressuring Fed rate cut odds. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March monthly gains or upward revisions to prior data, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics report due April 10.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≥2.8% 98.5%
不超过2.0% <1%
2.6% <1%
2.7% <1%
$3,038,961 交易量
$3,038,961 交易量
2026-04-10
不超过2.0%
1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
99%
≥2.8% 98.5%
不超过2.0% <1%
2.6% <1%
2.7% <1%
$3,038,961 交易量
$3,038,961 交易量
2026-04-10
不超过2.0%
$182,820 交易量
1%
2.1%
$90,390 交易量
<1%
2.2%
$80,102 交易量
<1%
2.3%
$206,708 交易量
<1%
2.4%
$180,490 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$179,104 交易量
<1%
2.6%
$153,669 交易量
<1%
2.7%
$154,219 交易量
<1%
≥2.8%
$1,811,459 交易量
99%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting elevated nowcasting models like the Cleveland Fed's 3.25% headline estimate amid sticky core pressures and recent base effects from last year's lower readings. February's CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, matching January, but surging retail sales and potential war-related commodity shocks have lifted forecasts toward 3.2–3.4%, diverging from earlier sub-3% expectations. This strong positioning underscores trader confidence in persistent inflation dynamics pressuring Fed rate cut odds. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March monthly gains or upward revisions to prior data, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics report due April 10.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市场开放时间： Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
交易量
$3,038,961结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting elevated nowcasting models like the Cleveland Fed's 3.25% headline estimate amid sticky core pressures and recent base effects from last year's lower readings. February's CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, matching January, but surging retail sales and potential war-related commodity shocks have lifted forecasts toward 3.2–3.4%, diverging from earlier sub-3% expectations. This strong positioning underscores trader confidence in persistent inflation dynamics pressuring Fed rate cut odds. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March monthly gains or upward revisions to prior data, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics report due April 10.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
交易量
$3,038,961结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting elevated nowcasting models like the Cleveland Fed's 3.25% headline estimate amid sticky core pressures and recent base effects from last year's lower readings. February's CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, matching January, but surging retail sales and potential war-related commodity shocks have lifted forecasts toward 3.2–3.4%, diverging from earlier sub-3% expectations. This strong positioning underscores trader confidence in persistent inflation dynamics pressuring Fed rate cut odds. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March monthly gains or upward revisions to prior data, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics report due April 10.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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