Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals hold a minority government in the 45th Parliament following the April 2025 federal election, but recent floor-crossings—including Alberta Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux in February and NDP MP Lori Idlout—have brought them within one or two seats of the 170 required for a House of Commons majority. Three April 13 byelections in Liberal strongholds—Terrebonne, University—Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest—offer high-confidence paths to victory, per trader consensus reflected in 96% implied probability for a majority by June 30. While polls favor Liberal wins amid favorable national trends, unlikely disruptions like by-election upsets, reverse defections, or a snap election dissolution could still prevent it.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$147,288 交易量
$147,288 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$147,288 交易量
$147,288 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals hold a minority government in the 45th Parliament following the April 2025 federal election, but recent floor-crossings—including Alberta Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux in February and NDP MP Lori Idlout—have brought them within one or two seats of the 170 required for a House of Commons majority. Three April 13 byelections in Liberal strongholds—Terrebonne, University—Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest—offer high-confidence paths to victory, per trader consensus reflected in 96% implied probability for a majority by June 30. While polls favor Liberal wins amid favorable national trends, unlikely disruptions like by-election upsets, reverse defections, or a snap election dissolution could still prevent it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 4:44 PM ET
交易量
$147,288结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals hold a minority government in the 45th Parliament following the April 2025 federal election, but recent floor-crossings—including Alberta Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux in February and NDP MP Lori Idlout—have brought them within one or two seats of the 170 required for a House of Commons majority. Three April 13 byelections in Liberal strongholds—Terrebonne, University—Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest—offer high-confidence paths to victory, per trader consensus reflected in 96% implied probability for a majority by June 30. While polls favor Liberal wins amid favorable national trends, unlikely disruptions like by-election upsets, reverse defections, or a snap election dissolution could still prevent it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$147,288结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals hold a minority government in the 45th Parliament following the April 2025 federal election, but recent floor-crossings—including Alberta Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux in February and NDP MP Lori Idlout—have brought them within one or two seats of the 170 required for a House of Commons majority. Three April 13 byelections in Liberal strongholds—Terrebonne, University—Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest—offer high-confidence paths to victory, per trader consensus reflected in 96% implied probability for a majority by June 30. While polls favor Liberal wins amid favorable national trends, unlikely disruptions like by-election upsets, reverse defections, or a snap election dissolution could still prevent it.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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