Canada’s population stood at a record 41.8 million on July 1, 2026, reflecting 0.5% annual growth—the slowest pace in over a century—driven almost entirely by net international migration amid declining non-permanent residents. Federal policy has targeted a reduction of temporary residents to under 5% of the population by the end of 2027, with 2026 arrivals capped at 385,000 and permanent resident targets stabilized near 380,000. Recent Statistics Canada revisions eliminated earlier indications of outright quarterly declines, yet the ongoing outflow of temporary residents and restrained inflows continue to weigh on momentum. Traders appear to view these sustained policy adjustments as likely to produce a net year-over-year drop by December 2026, resulting in the narrow 55% implied probability for “Down.”