Recent Bank of Canada and private-sector forecasts for 1.1–1.8% real GDP growth in 2026, following 1.7% expansion in 2025, underpin the 81.5% market-implied probability that Canada avoids recession before 2027. Domestic demand has shown resilience, supported by fiscal measures and energy-sector gains from elevated oil prices, while the unemployment rate has stabilized near 6.7% and core inflation continues trending toward the 2% target. The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% reflects confidence in a soft-landing trajectory despite temporary headline inflation pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include outcomes from CUSMA renegotiations and June monetary policy decisions that could influence business investment and consumer spending.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$67,199 交易量
$67,199 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$67,199 交易量
$67,199 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)Recent Bank of Canada and private-sector forecasts for 1.1–1.8% real GDP growth in 2026, following 1.7% expansion in 2025, underpin the 81.5% market-implied probability that Canada avoids recession before 2027. Domestic demand has shown resilience, supported by fiscal measures and energy-sector gains from elevated oil prices, while the unemployment rate has stabilized near 6.7% and core inflation continues trending toward the 2% target. The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% reflects confidence in a soft-landing trajectory despite temporary headline inflation pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include outcomes from CUSMA renegotiations and June monetary policy decisions that could influence business investment and consumer spending.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
市场开放时间： Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ET
交易量
$67,199结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)Recent Bank of Canada and private-sector forecasts for 1.1–1.8% real GDP growth in 2026, following 1.7% expansion in 2025, underpin the 81.5% market-implied probability that Canada avoids recession before 2027. Domestic demand has shown resilience, supported by fiscal measures and energy-sector gains from elevated oil prices, while the unemployment rate has stabilized near 6.7% and core inflation continues trending toward the 2% target. The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% reflects confidence in a soft-landing trajectory despite temporary headline inflation pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include outcomes from CUSMA renegotiations and June monetary policy decisions that could influence business investment and consumer spending.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
交易量
$67,199结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Bank of Canada and private-sector forecasts for 1.1–1.8% real GDP growth in 2026, following 1.7% expansion in 2025, underpin the 81.5% market-implied probability that Canada avoids recession before 2027. Domestic demand has shown resilience, supported by fiscal measures and energy-sector gains from elevated oil prices, while the unemployment rate has stabilized near 6.7% and core inflation continues trending toward the 2% target. The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% reflects confidence in a soft-landing trajectory despite temporary headline inflation pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include outcomes from CUSMA renegotiations and June monetary policy decisions that could influence business investment and consumer spending.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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