Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian missile infrastructure and nuclear sites like Natanz have prompted sustained Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, including strikes on the town of Dimona near a nuclear facility six days ago and daily barrages of 10-20 projectiles. Tehran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal two days ago, while Israel vowed yesterday to intensify operations amid Iran's warnings for civilians near U.S. targets to evacuate, signaling potential escalation. Revolutionary Guards continue high-tempo strikes on Israeli and regional U.S. facilities, with no major de-escalation signals as the April 30 deadline approaches; traders weigh Iran's depleted missile stocks against regime survival pressures and proxy involvement from Hezbollah.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$112,866 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
97%
Kuwait
93%
UAE
92%
Qatar
60%
Iraq
42%
Oman
56%
Lebanon
31%
Yemen
21%
Syria
29%
Azerbaijan
10%
Turkey
9%
Pakistan
8%
Cyprus
6%
UK
5%
India
5%
Poland
4%
Germany
4%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
3%
Georgia
2%
Spain
2%
Ukraine
2%
Armenia
2%
$112,866 交易量
Bahrain
$1,750 交易量
97%
Kuwait
$1,057 交易量
93%
UAE
$550 交易量
92%
Qatar
$280 交易量
60%
Iraq
$235 交易量
42%
Oman
$1,859 交易量
56%
Lebanon
$795 交易量
31%
Yemen
$312 交易量
21%
Syria
$283 交易量
29%
Azerbaijan
$543 交易量
10%
Turkey
$279 交易量
9%
Pakistan
$0 交易量
8%
Cyprus
$263 交易量
6%
UK
$1,593 交易量
5%
India
$0 交易量
5%
Poland
$17,677 交易量
4%
Germany
$4,233 交易量
4%
Italy
$100 交易量
3%
France
$0 交易量
3%
Afghanistan
$0 交易量
3%
Hungary
$9,644 交易量
3%
Georgia
$460 交易量
2%
Spain
$1,672 交易量
2%
Ukraine
$240 交易量
2%
Armenia
$579 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian missile infrastructure and nuclear sites like Natanz have prompted sustained Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, including strikes on the town of Dimona near a nuclear facility six days ago and daily barrages of 10-20 projectiles. Tehran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal two days ago, while Israel vowed yesterday to intensify operations amid Iran's warnings for civilians near U.S. targets to evacuate, signaling potential escalation. Revolutionary Guards continue high-tempo strikes on Israeli and regional U.S. facilities, with no major de-escalation signals as the April 30 deadline approaches; traders weigh Iran's depleted missile stocks against regime survival pressures and proxy involvement from Hezbollah.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$112,866结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian missile infrastructure and nuclear sites like Natanz have prompted sustained Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, including strikes on the town of Dimona near a nuclear facility six days ago and daily barrages of 10-20 projectiles. Tehran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal two days ago, while Israel vowed yesterday to intensify operations amid Iran's warnings for civilians near U.S. targets to evacuate, signaling potential escalation. Revolutionary Guards continue high-tempo strikes on Israeli and regional U.S. facilities, with no major de-escalation signals as the April 30 deadline approaches; traders weigh Iran's depleted missile stocks against regime survival pressures and proxy involvement from Hezbollah.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$112,866结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian missile infrastructure and nuclear sites like Natanz have prompted sustained Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, including strikes on the town of Dimona near a nuclear facility six days ago and daily barrages of 10-20 projectiles. Tehran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal two days ago, while Israel vowed yesterday to intensify operations amid Iran's warnings for civilians near U.S. targets to evacuate, signaling potential escalation. Revolutionary Guards continue high-tempo strikes on Israeli and regional U.S. facilities, with no major de-escalation signals as the April 30 deadline approaches; traders weigh Iran's depleted missile stocks against regime survival pressures and proxy involvement from Hezbollah.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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