Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts heavily toward a June SpaceX IPO at 44.5% implied probability, fueled by the company's recent $210 billion valuation from a June tender offer and Starship's successful Flight 4 test, which spurred optimism for near-term liquidity events amid surging launch demand. The 23.6% odds on no IPO before 2027 reflect Elon Musk's longstanding caution that SpaceX won't list until Mars missions prove reliable, tempering enthusiasm despite Starlink's potential 2025 spin-off. Lower probabilities for later months like October (10.1%) stem from absent SEC filings and macroeconomic headwinds, including high interest rates delaying tech listings; traders eye Q3 Starship milestones as key catalysts amid inherent resolution uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于六月 45%
2027年前无首次公开募股 23.7%
十月 10.1%
7月 9.6%
$66,143 交易量
$66,143 交易量
三月
1%
四月
2%
5月
6%
六月
45%
7月
10%
八月
9%
九月
9%
十月
10%
十一月
8%
12月
9%
2027年前无首次公开募股
24%
六月 45%
2027年前无首次公开募股 23.7%
十月 10.1%
7月 9.6%
$66,143 交易量
$66,143 交易量
三月
1%
四月
2%
5月
6%
六月
45%
7月
10%
八月
9%
九月
9%
十月
10%
十一月
8%
12月
9%
2027年前无首次公开募股
24%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
市场开放时间: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts heavily toward a June SpaceX IPO at 44.5% implied probability, fueled by the company's recent $210 billion valuation from a June tender offer and Starship's successful Flight 4 test, which spurred optimism for near-term liquidity events amid surging launch demand. The 23.6% odds on no IPO before 2027 reflect Elon Musk's longstanding caution that SpaceX won't list until Mars missions prove reliable, tempering enthusiasm despite Starlink's potential 2025 spin-off. Lower probabilities for later months like October (10.1%) stem from absent SEC filings and macroeconomic headwinds, including high interest rates delaying tech listings; traders eye Q3 Starship milestones as key catalysts amid inherent resolution uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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