Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts heavily toward a June SpaceX IPO at 35.5% implied probability, propelled by the successful Starship Flight Test 4 on June 6, which advanced orbital refueling milestones and boosted the company's $210 billion private valuation in a recent tender offer. Summer months like July (12.4%) and September (10.7%) follow closely, reflecting optimism around accelerating Starship development amid favorable equity markets. However, Elon Musk's June 13 reaffirmation that no IPO occurs until Mars missions are viable underpins the 12.6% odds for no listing before 2027, tempering enthusiasm with execution risks on reusable rocket tech and regulatory hurdles. Upcoming tests will be pivotal for shifting these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于六月 34%
7月 12.4%
十一月 9.4%
九月 8.3%
$64,287 交易量
$64,287 交易量
三月
1%
四月
9%
5月
6%
六月
34%
7月
12%
八月
8%
九月
11%
十月
4%
十一月
9%
12月
2%
2027年前无首次公开募股
12%
六月 34%
7月 12.4%
十一月 9.4%
九月 8.3%
$64,287 交易量
$64,287 交易量
三月
1%
四月
9%
5月
6%
六月
34%
7月
12%
八月
8%
九月
11%
十月
4%
十一月
9%
12月
2%
2027年前无首次公开募股
12%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
市场开放时间: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts heavily toward a June SpaceX IPO at 35.5% implied probability, propelled by the successful Starship Flight Test 4 on June 6, which advanced orbital refueling milestones and boosted the company's $210 billion private valuation in a recent tender offer. Summer months like July (12.4%) and September (10.7%) follow closely, reflecting optimism around accelerating Starship development amid favorable equity markets. However, Elon Musk's June 13 reaffirmation that no IPO occurs until Mars missions are viable underpins the 12.6% odds for no listing before 2027, tempering enthusiasm with execution risks on reusable rocket tech and regulatory hurdles. Upcoming tests will be pivotal for shifting these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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