Trader consensus heavily favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 60.5% implied probability, driven by the company's blistering Q1 2026 cadence of 40 Falcon missions through March 30—averaging over 13 monthly amid record booster reuse like B1080's 34th flight on a late-March Starlink delivery. This momentum, fueled by aggressive Starlink constellation expansion and pads at SLC-40, SLC-4E, and beyond, underpins expectations for a similar pace, with confirmed early slots including dual Starlinks on April 2, Cygnus NG-24 on April 8, and NET dates for GPS III SV10 and ViaSat-3 F3. Probabilities taper for 14 (18.5%) and 15 (16%) on potential manifest fills, while lower tallies reflect few delays; watch FAA approvals and range availability for shifts as the month unfolds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于13 63%
14 20%
15 16%
16 7%
$15,632 交易量
$15,632 交易量
≤11
3%
12
6%
13
61%
14
19%
15
16%
16
8%
17 or more
2%
13 63%
14 20%
15 16%
16 7%
$15,632 交易量
$15,632 交易量
≤11
3%
12
6%
13
61%
14
19%
15
16%
16
8%
17 or more
2%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 60.5% implied probability, driven by the company's blistering Q1 2026 cadence of 40 Falcon missions through March 30—averaging over 13 monthly amid record booster reuse like B1080's 34th flight on a late-March Starlink delivery. This momentum, fueled by aggressive Starlink constellation expansion and pads at SLC-40, SLC-4E, and beyond, underpins expectations for a similar pace, with confirmed early slots including dual Starlinks on April 2, Cygnus NG-24 on April 8, and NET dates for GPS III SV10 and ViaSat-3 F3. Probabilities taper for 14 (18.5%) and 15 (16%) on potential manifest fills, while lower tallies reflect few delays; watch FAA approvals and range availability for shifts as the month unfolds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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