Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting the company's blistering Falcon 9 cadence—10 missions packed into late March 2026 alone, sustaining a monthly average of roughly 13 amid relentless Starlink deployments. This momentum positions 14-16 as viable runners-up (16.5%-8.0%), bolstered by confirmed early-month slots like dual Starlinks on April 2, Cygnus NG-24 on the 8th, plus NET April flights for GPS III-10, ViaSat-3 on Falcon Heavy, and Starship's pivotal Flight 12 test. Lower tallies trail due to risks from weather holds, range conflicts, or rare anomalies, while 17+ remains a longshot without unprecedented ramp-up; watch April 2 launches for initial trajectory shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于13 63%
14 20%
15 16%
16 7%
$15,632 交易量
$15,632 交易量
≤11
3%
12
6%
13
61%
14
19%
15
16%
16
8%
17 or more
2%
13 63%
14 20%
15 16%
16 7%
$15,632 交易量
$15,632 交易量
≤11
3%
12
6%
13
61%
14
19%
15
16%
16
8%
17 or more
2%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting the company's blistering Falcon 9 cadence—10 missions packed into late March 2026 alone, sustaining a monthly average of roughly 13 amid relentless Starlink deployments. This momentum positions 14-16 as viable runners-up (16.5%-8.0%), bolstered by confirmed early-month slots like dual Starlinks on April 2, Cygnus NG-24 on the 8th, plus NET April flights for GPS III-10, ViaSat-3 on Falcon Heavy, and Starship's pivotal Flight 12 test. Lower tallies trail due to risks from weather holds, range conflicts, or rare anomalies, while 17+ remains a longshot without unprecedented ramp-up; watch April 2 launches for initial trajectory shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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