Traders' near-tie between 140-159 (34.7%) and 160-179 (33.0%) SpaceX launches in 2026 reflects accelerating Falcon 9 cadence from 133 orbital launches in 2024—surpassing 2023's 98—driven by booster reusability (turnaround times under 30 days) and Starlink constellation expansion requiring 40+ daily satellites. Starship's maturation, with Flight 8's successful soft splashdown and next tests imminent, offers upside potential toward 200+, but FAA licensing bottlenecks, supply chain limits, and orbital refueling milestones differentiate higher bins; historical ramp rates and DoD/NASA contracts anchor consensus around 150-170 amid proven reliability metrics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
160-179 33%
140-159 29.1%
200次或更多 18%
180-199 14.6%
$233,958 交易量
$233,958 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
少于100
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
6%
140-159
33%
160-179
33%
180-199
15%
200次或更多
18%
160-179 33%
140-159 29.1%
200次或更多 18%
180-199 14.6%
$233,958 交易量
$233,958 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
少于100
$2,020 交易量
<1%
100-119
$1,294 交易量
1%
120-139
$1,754 交易量
6%
140-159
$24,666 交易量
33%
160-179
$70,369 交易量
33%
180-199
$56,902 交易量
15%
200次或更多
$76,953 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
交易量
$233,958结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
交易量
$233,958结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders' near-tie between 140-159 (34.7%) and 160-179 (33.0%) SpaceX launches in 2026 reflects accelerating Falcon 9 cadence from 133 orbital launches in 2024—surpassing 2023's 98—driven by booster reusability (turnaround times under 30 days) and Starlink constellation expansion requiring 40+ daily satellites. Starship's maturation, with Flight 8's successful soft splashdown and next tests imminent, offers upside potential toward 200+, but FAA licensing bottlenecks, supply chain limits, and orbital refueling milestones differentiate higher bins; historical ramp rates and DoD/NASA contracts anchor consensus around 150-170 amid proven reliability metrics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题